{ "ticker": { "uuid": "12ff2999-5229-4a74-943a-803086841173", "symbol": "QUAL3", "name": "Qualicorp Consultoria e Corretora de Seguros S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.739, "architecture_energy": 66.819, "architecture_maturity": 52.337, "architecture_confidence": 90.083, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.45, "rotation_up": 12.74, "upward_expansion": 14.38, "deceleration": 38.87, "rotation_down": 67.75, "downward_expansion": 87.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.548667, 1.609148, 1.684407, 1.767437 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.61, "trend_reference": 1.903541, "distance_from_trend": -0.154208, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.135132, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.245948, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.822292, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.274775, "excess_performance": -0.217726, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.154208, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09856, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.245948, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043191, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.248223, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014431, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.274775, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.53216, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10868800, "relative_activity": 0.779299, "balance": 0.53216, "dry_up": 1.051487, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106816, "annualized_volatility": 0.578514, "from_high_reference": -0.429078, "from_low_reference": 0.175182 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.903541, "fair_value_reference": 2.135132, "structural_low": 1.37, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 45, "median_return": -0.034953, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.063261, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.352201, "worst_return": -0.26893, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.209055, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.19127, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.251366, "worst_return": -0.335534, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.286628, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.278407, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.262295, "worst_return": -0.437653, "sufficient": true }, { 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"down", "direction": -58.657877, "energy": 34.979896, "activity_lines": [ 1.702193, 1.699671, 1.766354, 1.852638 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.39, "volume": 21065100, "typical_volume": 14587830.0, "trend": 1.949541, "fair_value": 2.17086, "relative_strength": -36.387637, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.597361, "energy": 68.849007, "activity_lines": [ 1.588728, 1.640648, 1.725372, 1.814732 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.53, "volume": 15604200, "typical_volume": 14351895.0, "trend": 1.923541, "fair_value": 2.152548, "relative_strength": -31.137684, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.687973, "energy": 71.17563, "activity_lines": [ 1.546667, 1.614534, 1.700485, 1.787665 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.61, "volume": 10868800, "typical_volume": 13946890.0, "trend": 1.903541, "fair_value": 2.135132, "relative_strength": -24.822292, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.7394, "energy": 66.819198, "activity_lines": [ 1.548667, 1.609148, 1.684407, 1.767437 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }