{ "ticker": { "uuid": "13030580-d8e7-4986-85b4-ba36b8c85eb8", "symbol": "300387", "name": "Hubei Forbon Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.629, "architecture_energy": 54.748, "architecture_maturity": 65.59, "architecture_confidence": 94.675, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 26.81, "upward_expansion": 9.56, "deceleration": 60.38, "rotation_down": 52.41, "downward_expansion": 82.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.95, 6.990182, 7.447199, 7.861753 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.16, "trend_reference": 8.348973, "distance_from_trend": -0.142409, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.823093, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.084761, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.274317, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.238833, "excess_performance": -0.246233, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.142409, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065721, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.084761, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.255522, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.202743, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021422, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.238833, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.262849, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28364889, "relative_activity": 0.909926, "balance": 0.262849, "dry_up": 0.947571, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072667, "annualized_volatility": 0.388067, "from_high_reference": -0.350507, "from_low_reference": 0.115265 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.348973, "fair_value_reference": 7.823093, "structural_low": 6.42, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.000998, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.036001, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.211667, "worst_return": -0.151943, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.081943, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.083446, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.665131, "worst_return": -0.05968, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.05279, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.150646, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.547923, "worst_return": -0.172205, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 6.56, "volume": 33415301, "typical_volume": 43793548.1, "trend": 8.440906, "fair_value": 7.82547, "relative_strength": -25.619032, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.206742, "energy": 76.465612, "activity_lines": [ 6.826667, 7.039356, 7.625573, 8.034184 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.0, "volume": 26787278, "typical_volume": 39422057.2, "trend": 8.391777, "fair_value": 7.823956, "relative_strength": -18.690031, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.842023, "energy": 62.006572, "activity_lines": [ 6.866667, 6.987636, 7.520911, 7.941222 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.16, "volume": 28364889, "typical_volume": 31172740.4, "trend": 8.348973, "fair_value": 7.823093, "relative_strength": -20.274317, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.629266, "energy": 54.748008, "activity_lines": [ 6.95, 6.990182, 7.447199, 7.861753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }