{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1303fbb6-2867-4044-a017-6542b644c5dd", "symbol": "PHIA", "name": "Koninklijke Philips N.V.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 62.658, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.408, "architecture_energy": 22.784, "architecture_maturity": 20.988, "architecture_confidence": 65.281, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.05, "rotation_up": 13.6, "upward_expansion": 16.69, "deceleration": 59.6, "rotation_down": 54.59, "downward_expansion": 62.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.102666, 23.391818, 23.211539, 23.249589 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 23.049999, "trend_reference": 23.449404, "distance_from_trend": -0.017033, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.609297, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.06667, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.37952, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.034151, "excess_performance": -0.208398, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.017033, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008175, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.06667, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002903, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.193795, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039284, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.034151, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.414188, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13890, "relative_activity": 1.184406, "balance": 0.414188, "dry_up": 1.645463, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044782, "annualized_volatility": 0.281548, "from_high_reference": -0.128732, "from_low_reference": 0.113715 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.449404, "fair_value_reference": 21.609297, "structural_low": 20.696493, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.040895, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.017253, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.115688, "worst_return": -0.171725, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.046533, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.064175, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.126215, "worst_return": -0.185907, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.188475, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.012585, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.446824, "worst_return": -0.104771, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.235579, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001721, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.504544, "worst_return": -0.033386, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.080959, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.029537, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002174, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028121, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025396, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000438, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.109524, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.083534, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003414, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", 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23.394375, "fair_value": 21.460693, "relative_strength": -15.397465, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.298249, "energy": 42.90991, "activity_lines": [ 24.018, 23.567085, 23.207925, 23.338835 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.559999, "volume": 11590, "typical_volume": 11252.5, "trend": 23.44456, "fair_value": 21.492381, "relative_strength": -15.276479, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.568002, "energy": 39.997448, "activity_lines": [ 23.951333, 23.630181, 23.240011, 23.34952 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.209999, "volume": 8543, "typical_volume": 10437.6, "trend": 23.485969, "fair_value": 21.532398, "relative_strength": -17.337489, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.9304, "energy": 25.733464, "activity_lines": [ 23.715333, 23.609272, 23.250259, 23.334387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.620001, "volume": 43165, "typical_volume": 11656.0, "trend": 23.4984, "fair_value": 21.569148, "relative_strength": -18.938374, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.478357, "energy": 17.973672, "activity_lines": [ 23.295333, 23.454363, 23.208353, 23.278518 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.049999, "volume": 13890, "typical_volume": 11727.4, "trend": 23.449404, "fair_value": 21.609297, "relative_strength": -19.37952, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.407848, "energy": 22.783625, "activity_lines": [ 23.102666, 23.391818, 23.211539, 23.249589 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }