{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1305ecd1-277c-4054-99d9-a0d36937d9b8", "symbol": "601233", "name": "Tongkun Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 56.976, "architecture_energy": 27.976, "architecture_maturity": 25.489, "architecture_confidence": 71.564, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.76, "rotation_up": 45.63, "upward_expansion": 72.99, "deceleration": 61.73, "rotation_down": 25.15, "downward_expansion": 6.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.183333, 22.03438, 21.533082, 21.229277 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 23.559999, "trend_reference": 20.899455, "distance_from_trend": 0.127302, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.658339, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.607276, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 29.981559, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.077275, "excess_performance": 0.120479, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.127302, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.114717, "read": "Rising" 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16.360001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.021976, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.020204, "regime_survival": 0.65, "best_return": 0.259098, "worst_return": -0.27006, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.098934, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.089139, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.477893, "worst_return": -0.240244, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.090685, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.066329, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.388131, "worst_return": -0.2567, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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41.741112, "energy": 22.899782, "activity_lines": [ 21.517143, 21.418033, 21.030277, 20.869193 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.129999, "volume": 218056245, "typical_volume": 194631123.8, "trend": 20.502788, "fair_value": 14.544155, "relative_strength": 22.949485, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.130708, "energy": 12.446746, "activity_lines": [ 21.305563, 21.425239, 21.078593, 20.921572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.4, "volume": 157305480, "typical_volume": 187026804.35, "trend": 20.687788, "fair_value": 14.598511, "relative_strength": 28.415511, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.556921, "energy": 16.942963, "activity_lines": [ 21.500227, 21.65081, 21.255481, 21.043973 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.559999, "volume": 193605098, "typical_volume": 176683454.4, "trend": 20.899455, "fair_value": 14.658339, "relative_strength": 29.981559, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.975774, "energy": 27.976455, "activity_lines": [ 22.183333, 22.03438, 21.533082, 21.229277 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }