{ "ticker": { "uuid": "13090e08-a557-4ea0-9acb-f6fac8a962fa", "symbol": "1233", "name": "Ten Ren Tea Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -27.176, "architecture_energy": 20.071, "architecture_maturity": 38.385, "architecture_confidence": 60.681, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.17, "rotation_up": 38.27, "upward_expansion": 34.88, "deceleration": 44.41, "rotation_down": 26.86, "downward_expansion": 45.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.503586, 28.365843, 28.275882, 28.644491 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 27.799999, "trend_reference": 29.412299, "distance_from_trend": -0.054817, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 31.103735, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.106217, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.989889, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.130651, "excess_performance": -0.572023, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.054817, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035763, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.106217, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012411, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.349899, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026987, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.130651, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.889751, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 118303, "relative_activity": 1.136976, "balance": 0.889751, "dry_up": 0.988923, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030433, "annualized_volatility": 0.157399, "from_high_reference": -0.169346, "from_low_reference": 0.03678 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.412299, "fair_value_reference": 31.103735, "structural_low": 26.813794, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.001462, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.013643, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.042208, "worst_return": -0.036364, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.019792, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.050004, "worst_return": -0.098802, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.003911, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.065371, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.048701, "worst_return": -0.067678, "sufficient": false 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"direction": -45.834968, "energy": 38.608444, "activity_lines": [ 27.995587, 27.92968, 28.224236, 28.908387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.200001, "volume": 106224, "typical_volume": 99474.7, "trend": 29.753471, "fair_value": 31.23274, "relative_strength": -31.123265, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.619443, "energy": 17.450526, "activity_lines": [ 28.4103, 28.149568, 28.270135, 28.86756 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.9, "volume": 107052, "typical_volume": 101317.15, "trend": 29.654184, "fair_value": 31.191401, "relative_strength": -30.112493, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.119718, "energy": 16.534156, "activity_lines": [ 28.632138, 28.304025, 28.301636, 28.812497 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.799999, "volume": 80013, "typical_volume": 102091.05, "trend": 29.549908, "fair_value": 31.149421, "relative_strength": -31.202738, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.341519, "energy": 18.993307, "activity_lines": [ 28.761011, 28.434872, 28.333777, 28.757388 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 27.799999, "volume": 118303, "typical_volume": 104050.55, "trend": 29.412299, "fair_value": 31.103735, "relative_strength": -34.989889, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.176242, "energy": 20.071014, "activity_lines": [ 28.503586, 28.365843, 28.275882, 28.644491 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }