{ "ticker": { "uuid": "130b0799-40b9-4700-8c89-0b60b0f5e022", "symbol": "6496", "name": "Excelsior Biopharma Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.196, "architecture_energy": 27.32, "architecture_maturity": 56.495, "architecture_confidence": 86.731, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.03, "rotation_up": 19.78, "upward_expansion": 2.04, "deceleration": 51.88, "rotation_down": 45.39, "downward_expansion": 73.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.356667, 24.536364, 24.549524, 24.945484 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 24.200001, "trend_reference": 25.655, "distance_from_trend": -0.056714, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 28.36859, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.146944, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -37.734217, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.100372, "excess_performance": -0.541744, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.056714, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055934, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.146944, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030621, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.377342, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040327, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.100372, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.466768, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 47579, "relative_activity": 0.95239, "balance": 1.466768, "dry_up": 0.783477, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065003, "annualized_volatility": 0.212594, "from_high_reference": -0.207856, "from_low_reference": 0.075556 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.655, "fair_value_reference": 28.36859, "structural_low": 22.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.44, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": -0.010495, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.169133, "worst_return": -0.096838, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 2e-06, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.069362, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.124764, "worst_return": -0.103512, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.02784, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.095351, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.178506, "worst_return": -0.143581, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010309, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.13181, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.037175, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.024561, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032479, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.010084, "active": 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"typical_volume": 51161.6, "trend": 26.31, "fair_value": 28.516667, "relative_strength": -34.998275, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.916603, "energy": 16.148362, "activity_lines": [ 24.883333, 24.650909, 24.845714, 25.390645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.200001, "volume": 28112, "typical_volume": 50961.25, "trend": 26.133333, "fair_value": 28.470513, "relative_strength": -37.092725, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.766183, "energy": 21.710736, "activity_lines": [ 24.65, 24.611818, 24.740714, 25.254516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.6, "volume": 36943, "typical_volume": 47501.85, "trend": 25.983333, "fair_value": 28.432372, "relative_strength": -34.514985, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.287323, "energy": 20.725474, "activity_lines": [ 24.596667, 24.638182, 24.687381, 25.155591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.35, "volume": 43928, "typical_volume": 48443.75, "trend": 25.823333, "fair_value": 28.398718, "relative_strength": -36.006197, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.165242, "energy": 25.291409, "activity_lines": [ 24.506667, 24.614546, 24.621667, 25.050215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 24.200001, "volume": 47579, "typical_volume": 49957.45, "trend": 25.655, "fair_value": 28.36859, "relative_strength": -37.734217, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.195606, "energy": 27.320006, "activity_lines": [ 24.356667, 24.536364, 24.549524, 24.945484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }