{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "130ce255-eaf4-46f5-80d3-a1c3598b0b50",
    "symbol": "MSE",
    "name": "Amundi EURO STOXX 50 II UCITS ETF Acc",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 83.638,
    "architecture_energy": 69.747,
    "architecture_maturity": 32.487,
    "architecture_confidence": 82.771,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 8.4,
        "rotation_up": 62.82,
        "upward_expansion": 86.0,
        "deceleration": 53.32,
        "rotation_down": 22.84,
        "downward_expansion": 12.66
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        69.132279
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      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 74.309998,
    "trend_reference": 67.884333,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.094656,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 56.870321,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.306657,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -2.624501,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.109601,
    "excess_performance": -0.06129,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.094656,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.039231,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.306657,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.088089,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.026245,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.036972,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.109601,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 3.316688,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 51857,
      "relative_activity": 0.383599,
      "balance": 3.316688,
      "dry_up": 0.488494,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.02415,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.168229,
      "from_high_reference": -0.005088,
      "from_low_reference": 0.265282
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 67.884333,
      "fair_value_reference": 56.870321,
      "structural_low": 60.099998,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 39,
        "median_return": 0.003707,
        "positive_rate": 0.564103,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.564103,
        "median_excess_return": -0.008025,
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        "best_return": 0.104759,
        "worst_return": -0.087547,
        "sufficient": true
      },
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        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 12,
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        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
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        "regime_survival": 0.5,
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        "worst_return": -0.061654,
        "sufficient": true
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        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
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        "worst_return": -0.163934,
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        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "worst_return": -0.108725,
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        "fair_value": 54.510513,
        "relative_strength": -4.597317,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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        "energy": 27.047579,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "relative_strength": -5.389627,
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        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 151287.95,
        "trend": 64.831334,
        "fair_value": 54.785609,
        "relative_strength": -6.321712,
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 154788.9,
        "trend": 64.952334,
        "fair_value": 54.914327,
        "relative_strength": -6.983639,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 30.805796,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 174399.0,
        "trend": 65.129667,
        "fair_value": 55.061282,
        "relative_strength": -4.293058,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 37.500983,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 68.690002,
        "volume": 279617,
        "typical_volume": 185545.65,
        "trend": 65.321667,
        "fair_value": 55.211378,
        "relative_strength": -4.606346,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 45.361382,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 68.769997,
        "volume": 31419,
        "typical_volume": 183778.9,
        "trend": 65.549667,
        "fair_value": 55.364551,
        "relative_strength": -4.088407,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 62.625893,
        "energy": 55.291421,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 70.220001,
        "volume": 81416,
        "typical_volume": 179271.0,
        "trend": 65.779334,
        "fair_value": 55.519615,
        "relative_strength": -4.96264,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 73.750084,
        "energy": 71.343017,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 71.529999,
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        "fair_value": 55.691667,
        "relative_strength": -5.51096,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 78.940879,
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          66.820194
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 70.75,
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        "trend": 66.372667,
        "fair_value": 55.84984,
        "relative_strength": -3.518255,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 69.850728,
        "energy": 78.062239,
        "activity_lines": [
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          67.673953,
          67.119011
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 72.949997,
        "volume": 19894,
        "typical_volume": 167380.8,
        "trend": 66.677334,
        "fair_value": 56.032885,
        "relative_strength": -3.316505,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 83.649063,
        "energy": 87.360233,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 71.339996,
        "volume": 122656,
        "typical_volume": 170359.2,
        "trend": 66.930667,
        "fair_value": 56.194519,
        "relative_strength": -4.912381,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.195759,
        "energy": 79.92626,
        "activity_lines": [
          71.601998,
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          68.661238,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 70.919998,
        "volume": 98958,
        "typical_volume": 172040.65,
        "trend": 67.154667,
        "fair_value": 56.354071,
        "relative_strength": -4.001186,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 63.832115,
        "energy": 70.40606,
        "activity_lines": [
          71.455998,
          70.801089,
          69.01,
          68.101548
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 71.510002,
        "volume": 64937,
        "typical_volume": 163070.7,
        "trend": 67.402,
        "fair_value": 56.512019,
        "relative_strength": -2.949429,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.007821,
        "energy": 60.411827,
        "activity_lines": [
          71.459999,
          71.086544,
          69.404047,
          68.382538
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 72.349998,
        "volume": 48397,
        "typical_volume": 150474.2,
        "trend": 67.637,
        "fair_value": 56.684487,
        "relative_strength": -2.443927,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 69.470506,
        "energy": 54.304718,
        "activity_lines": [
          71.745332,
          71.423453,
          69.845095,
          68.701763
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 74.309998,
        "volume": 51857,
        "typical_volume": 135185.4,
        "trend": 67.884333,
        "fair_value": 56.870321,
        "relative_strength": -2.624501,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 83.638427,
        "energy": 69.746974,
        "activity_lines": [
          72.577332,
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          70.432095,
          69.132279
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}