{ "ticker": { "uuid": "130ef108-3ca6-4ca8-a9eb-d81e3330caea", "symbol": "ESS", "name": "Essex Property Trust Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.586, "architecture_energy": 40.527, "architecture_maturity": 73.546, "architecture_confidence": 50.693, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.16, "rotation_up": 42.7, "upward_expansion": 67.72, "deceleration": 65.19, "rotation_down": 26.15, "downward_expansion": 17.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 289.123333, 289.448736, 281.75619, 273.952938 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 288.1, "trend_reference": 265.219401, "distance_from_trend": 0.08627, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 253.243559, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.13764, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.533146, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.128355, "excess_performance": 0.00273, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.08627, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045473, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.13764, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080056, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.015331, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085974, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.128355, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.058569, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1853045, "relative_activity": 0.805121, "balance": 1.058569, "dry_up": 1.041985, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04063, "annualized_volatility": 0.189087, "from_high_reference": -0.050256, "from_low_reference": 0.221099 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 265.219401, "fair_value_reference": 253.243559, "structural_low": 235.934911, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.007215, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.002795, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.105771, "worst_return": -0.108155, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.026472, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.007805, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.221896, "worst_return": -0.245604, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.055585, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.020551, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.205188, "worst_return": -0.225124, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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2135154, "typical_volume": 2322973.4, "trend": 262.89579, "fair_value": 252.403654, "relative_strength": 4.723774, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.033442, "energy": 72.864813, "activity_lines": [ 293.937986, 289.256753, 278.553744, 271.020718 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 284.14, "volume": 3160212, "typical_volume": 2340431.35, "trend": 263.894798, "fair_value": 252.815566, "relative_strength": 0.424297, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.742161, "energy": 51.667165, "activity_lines": [ 290.584, 289.082528, 280.054102, 272.391312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 288.1, "volume": 1853045, "typical_volume": 2301572.15, "trend": 265.219401, "fair_value": 253.243559, "relative_strength": -1.533146, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.585638, "energy": 40.526816, "activity_lines": [ 289.123333, 289.448736, 281.75619, 273.952938 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }