{ "ticker": { "uuid": "13179e5a-dc6d-492b-9d39-26d3b7b9851d", "symbol": "CPX", "name": "CAP-XX Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 78.174, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -36.52, "architecture_energy": 39.694, "architecture_maturity": 24.557, "architecture_confidence": 68.998, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.12, "rotation_up": 19.48, "upward_expansion": 21.56, "deceleration": 55.88, "rotation_down": 64.96, "downward_expansion": 39.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.00199, 0.002342, 0.002422, 0.002399 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.00155, "trend_reference": 0.002367, "distance_from_trend": -0.34507, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.003819, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.594152, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -47.341965, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.243902, "excess_performance": -0.295138, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.34507, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014286, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.594152, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028468, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.47342, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.215818, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.243902, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.588758, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 485317771, "relative_activity": 3.955922, "balance": 1.588758, "dry_up": 2.285216, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.31067, "annualized_volatility": 1.003333, "from_high_reference": -0.677083, "from_low_reference": 0.107143 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.002367, "fair_value_reference": 0.003819, "structural_low": 0.0014, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.038981, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.032306, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.05, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.051949, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.024639, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.152174, "worst_return": -0.048276, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.027886, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.073409, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.130435, "worst_return": -0.186207, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 1.37931, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 1.209977, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.37931, "worst_return": 1.37931, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.779048, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.266667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.266667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034483, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.192857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058824, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030303, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.857143, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.324324, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021739, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043478, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.227273, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037037, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.068966, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.017, "volume": 18371616, "typical_volume": 18376874.6, "trend": 0.019095, "fair_value": 0.051589, "relative_strength": -36.562623, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 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0.002751, 0.002555, 0.002478 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.0028, "volume": 45629395, "typical_volume": 78506576.95, "trend": 0.002412, "fair_value": 0.004109, "relative_strength": -6.83851, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.819419, "energy": 51.148654, "activity_lines": [ 0.00286, 0.002784, 0.002588, 0.002504 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0026, "volume": 49885692, "typical_volume": 76028330.55, "trend": 0.002422, "fair_value": 0.003975, "relative_strength": -13.564193, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.911041, "energy": 31.26101, "activity_lines": [ 0.002777, 0.002767, 0.002602, 0.002516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.00145, "volume": 540580807, "typical_volume": 101034208.1, "trend": 0.002392, "fair_value": 0.003897, "relative_strength": -51.652203, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.336981, "energy": 22.045438, "activity_lines": [ 0.002317, 0.002537, 0.002505, 0.002454 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.00155, "volume": 485317771, "typical_volume": 122681343.35, "trend": 0.002367, "fair_value": 0.003819, "relative_strength": -47.341965, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.520232, "energy": 39.693746, "activity_lines": [ 0.00199, 0.002342, 0.002422, 0.002399 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }