{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1319074a-022e-4342-bf5f-100e8cd25727", "symbol": "000735", "name": "Luoniushan Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.699, "architecture_energy": 52.392, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 65.927, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.82, "rotation_up": 27.79, "upward_expansion": 21.73, "deceleration": 66.97, "rotation_down": 42.46, "downward_expansion": 69.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.072667, 5.036545, 5.359523, 5.787323 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.12, "trend_reference": 6.422072, "distance_from_trend": -0.20275, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.052826, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.154114, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.529693, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.390569, "excess_performance": -0.397969, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.20275, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.165703, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.154114, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.207507, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.285297, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035558, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.390569, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.217627, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 128117005, "relative_activity": 1.453144, "balance": 0.217627, "dry_up": 1.331856, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07124, "annualized_volatility": 0.293268, "from_high_reference": -0.576157, "from_low_reference": 0.077895 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.422072, "fair_value_reference": 6.052826, "structural_low": 4.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.005245, "positive_rate": 0.482759, "directional_follow_through": 0.517241, "median_excess_return": -0.002881, "regime_survival": 0.827586, "best_return": 0.175, "worst_return": -0.19708, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.00708, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.040905, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.277899, "worst_return": -0.195972, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.027358, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.077677, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.480364, "worst_return": -0.144361, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.770922, "energy": 70.187689, "activity_lines": [ 4.983333, 5.186005, 5.728772, 6.237747 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.95, "volume": 117588287, "typical_volume": 95397468.45, "trend": 6.861248, "fair_value": 6.081834, "relative_strength": -29.608778, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.075375, "energy": 66.465205, "activity_lines": [ 4.962667, 5.094619, 5.607673, 6.102764 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.85, "volume": 107180376, "typical_volume": 91438639.95, "trend": 6.70708, "fair_value": 6.070859, "relative_strength": -30.768634, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.199549, "energy": 66.959504, "activity_lines": [ 4.928, 5.013455, 5.490597, 5.973006 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.26, "volume": 116808552, "typical_volume": 89776731.25, "trend": 6.551002, "fair_value": 6.062133, "relative_strength": -23.239708, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.04869, "energy": 58.292096, "activity_lines": [ 5.039333, 5.031455, 5.426212, 5.879646 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.12, "volume": 128117005, "typical_volume": 88165380.35, "trend": 6.422072, "fair_value": 6.052826, "relative_strength": -28.529693, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.698573, "energy": 52.39167, "activity_lines": [ 5.072667, 5.036545, 5.359523, 5.787323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }