{ "ticker": { "uuid": "131d001a-efd5-4fa8-96fe-52e60044765b", "symbol": "000888", "name": "Emei Shan Tourism Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.64, "architecture_energy": 47.441, "architecture_maturity": 92.548, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.7, "rotation_up": 27.92, "upward_expansion": 21.83, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 40.94, "downward_expansion": 71.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.53599, 9.412231, 9.918866, 10.651593 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.64, "trend_reference": 11.605364, "distance_from_trend": -0.16935, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.751088, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.17965, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.715974, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.307471, "excess_performance": -0.314871, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.16935, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088398, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.17965, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.152806, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.24716, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05544, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.307471, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.399455, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35713983, "relative_activity": 0.934505, "balance": 0.399455, "dry_up": 1.212142, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061878, "annualized_volatility": 0.233276, "from_high_reference": -0.374287, "from_low_reference": 0.098575 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.605364, "fair_value_reference": 11.751088, "structural_low": 8.775, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.01469, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.051026, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.120235, "worst_return": -0.112223, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.082148, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.053302, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.26393, "worst_return": -0.014009, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.251659, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.308124, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.353372, "worst_return": -0.041641, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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-70.922992, "energy": 88.890851, "activity_lines": [ 9.135455, 9.523389, 10.515026, 11.263217 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.52, "volume": 65133066, "typical_volume": 41521621.5, "trend": 11.972657, "fair_value": 11.781432, "relative_strength": -25.186834, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.881764, "energy": 74.643785, "activity_lines": [ 9.236061, 9.447736, 10.335307, 11.098435 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.15, "volume": 43142559, "typical_volume": 40211539.25, "trend": 11.83203, "fair_value": 11.765993, "relative_strength": -27.568922, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.1776, "energy": 66.185504, "activity_lines": [ 9.224071, 9.340628, 10.139494, 10.916328 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.81, "volume": 41308002, "typical_volume": 39593062.45, "trend": 11.721364, "fair_value": 11.759454, "relative_strength": -20.311394, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.99616, "energy": 55.541603, "activity_lines": [ 9.440566, 9.386066, 10.028013, 10.785875 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.64, "volume": 35713983, "typical_volume": 38216986.65, "trend": 11.605364, "fair_value": 11.751088, "relative_strength": -24.715974, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.639847, "energy": 47.441124, "activity_lines": [ 9.53599, 9.412231, 9.918866, 10.651593 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }