{ "ticker": { "uuid": "131f00c4-8398-49be-99f2-1daca5b99806", "symbol": "MFSG", "name": "MFS ACTIVE GROWTH ETF", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 65.823, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.564, "architecture_energy": 28.4, "architecture_maturity": 39.321, "architecture_confidence": 82.844, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.55, "rotation_up": 34.53, "upward_expansion": 62.7, "deceleration": 92.38, "rotation_down": 27.02, "downward_expansion": 12.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.724, 29.695273, 29.627562, 29.073631 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 30.6, "trend_reference": 28.480353, "distance_from_trend": 0.074425, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.855182, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.139445, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.548316, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.116788, "excess_performance": -0.008837, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074425, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017725, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.139445, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005668, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.035483, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007029, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.116788, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.870312, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 209994, "relative_activity": 0.468886, "balance": 2.870312, "dry_up": 0.609509, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038263, "annualized_volatility": 0.203262, "from_high_reference": -0.009067, "from_low_reference": 0.248725 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.480353, "fair_value_reference": 26.855182, "structural_low": 24.505, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.090523, "energy": 30.098539, "activity_lines": [ 29.688667, 29.800282, 29.118834, 28.644604 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 30.28, "volume": 372947, "typical_volume": 520013.6, "trend": 28.334017, "fair_value": 26.727691, "relative_strength": -3.015136, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.115889, "energy": 36.675027, "activity_lines": [ 29.884667, 29.887582, 29.302331, 28.775162 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.29, "volume": 350495, "typical_volume": 524224.7, "trend": 28.372683, "fair_value": 26.757836, "relative_strength": -4.543576, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.797656, "energy": 24.060568, "activity_lines": [ 29.698, 29.775245, 29.377876, 28.836838 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.96, "volume": 307293, "typical_volume": 452249.5, "trend": 28.382183, "fair_value": 26.783442, "relative_strength": -4.876449, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.213244, "energy": 20.061911, "activity_lines": [ 29.415333, 29.613455, 29.411659, 28.874729 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.28, "volume": 224111, "typical_volume": 450385.75, "trend": 28.41485, "fair_value": 26.812138, "relative_strength": -4.664192, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.321475, "energy": 16.300063, "activity_lines": [ 29.352, 29.527636, 29.464301, 28.932653 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.6, "volume": 209994, "typical_volume": 447857.5, "trend": 28.480353, "fair_value": 26.855182, "relative_strength": -3.548316, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.563523, "energy": 28.400133, "activity_lines": [ 29.724, 29.695273, 29.627562, 29.073631 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }