{ "ticker": { "uuid": "13219d3d-d106-4c28-a369-cbd883729d0a", "symbol": "TGMA3", "name": "Tegma Gest\u00e3o Log\u00edstica S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -11.68, "architecture_energy": 10.739, "architecture_maturity": 78.229, "architecture_confidence": 70.142, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.31, "rotation_up": 30.98, "upward_expansion": 19.89, "deceleration": 43.98, "rotation_down": 27.06, "downward_expansion": 60.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.016039, 30.598557, 30.759385, 31.482884 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 33.48, "trend_reference": 32.969734, "distance_from_trend": 0.015477, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.58219, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.213827, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.989608, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.156037, "excess_performance": -0.098989, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.015477, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057435, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.213827, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042835, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.049896, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.181993, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.156037, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.910364, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2503000, "relative_activity": 2.390948, "balance": 0.910364, "dry_up": 1.24646, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056326, "annualized_volatility": 0.444989, "from_high_reference": -0.181218, "from_low_reference": 0.242301 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.969734, "fair_value_reference": 27.58219, "structural_low": 26.950001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.045037, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.026962, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.313322, "worst_return": -0.220299, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.108052, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.069912, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.64719, "worst_return": -0.07706, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.475879, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.354617, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.527571, "worst_return": -0.065102, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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27.34249, "relative_strength": -15.80477, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.118322, "energy": 43.765723, "activity_lines": [ 30.062992, 30.245515, 30.771001, 31.933198 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.886549, "volume": 651100, "typical_volume": 1356395.0, "trend": 33.268675, "fair_value": 27.42761, "relative_strength": -17.042762, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.566814, "energy": 43.420804, "activity_lines": [ 29.996929, 30.153548, 30.639083, 31.701204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.441779, "volume": 777300, "typical_volume": 1087035.0, "trend": 33.037067, "fair_value": 27.496941, "relative_strength": -19.433083, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.501334, "energy": 42.814627, "activity_lines": [ 29.800173, 29.990776, 30.502156, 31.454308 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.48, "volume": 2503000, "typical_volume": 1046865.0, "trend": 32.969734, "fair_value": 27.58219, "relative_strength": -4.989608, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.680033, "energy": 10.738596, "activity_lines": [ 31.016039, 30.598557, 30.759385, 31.482884 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }