{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "1326b197-3264-43be-8f46-6c1b518faa8a",
    "symbol": "TWL",
    "name": "Trade Window Holdings Limited",
    "exchange": "NZE",
    "country": "NZ",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^NZ50",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -87.994,
    "architecture_energy": 79.281,
    "architecture_maturity": 64.0,
    "architecture_confidence": 75.922,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 14.33,
        "rotation_up": 10.54,
        "upward_expansion": 15.07,
        "deceleration": 43.57,
        "rotation_down": 76.31,
        "downward_expansion": 86.07
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        0.159933,
        0.168491,
        0.181057,
        0.188832
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 0.142,
    "trend_reference": 0.2064,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.312016,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 0.225205,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.369464,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -43.993526,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.408333,
    "excess_performance": -0.436607,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.312016,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.183544,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.369464,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.21091,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.439935,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.254408,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.408333,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.431581,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 930735,
      "relative_activity": 8.046625,
      "balance": 0.431581,
      "dry_up": 2.380311,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.096966,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.509844,
      "from_high_reference": -0.631169,
      "from_low_reference": 0.109375
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 0.2064,
      "fair_value_reference": 0.225205,
      "structural_low": 0.128,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 23,
        "median_return": -0.025641,
        "positive_rate": 0.434783,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.565217,
        "median_excess_return": -0.024001,
        "regime_survival": 0.826087,
        "best_return": 0.72956,
        "worst_return": -0.189189,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": -0.095083,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.048844,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.251572,
        "worst_return": -0.259259,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.090919,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.103381,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.27027,
        "worst_return": -0.364865,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.027027,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.073508,
        "regime_survival": 1.0,
        "best_return": 0.222222,
        "worst_return": -0.5,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2023-10-06",
        "end": "2024-06-07",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.27037,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-06-14",
        "end": "2024-07-05",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.154639,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-07-12",
        "end": "2024-07-26",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.220126,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2024-08-16",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.26,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-08-23",
        "end": "2024-09-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.160714,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-11-29",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.175,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.047619,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-12-27",
        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.025,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.113402,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": false
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      {
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        "return": -0.2,
        "active": false
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      {
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      {
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "relative_strength": -29.484213,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 0.188,
        "volume": 63011,
        "typical_volume": 88768.3,
        "trend": 0.220733,
        "fair_value": 0.229532,
        "relative_strength": -26.133153,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -60.161258,
        "energy": 51.591391,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.182267,
          0.1858,
          0.190957,
          0.200443
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 0.18,
        "volume": 15545,
        "typical_volume": 88069.25,
        "trend": 0.217067,
        "fair_value": 0.228282,
        "relative_strength": -29.550145,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -62.9491,
        "energy": 47.373974,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.182333,
          0.183291,
          0.189662,
          0.197815
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 0.148,
        "volume": 92010,
        "typical_volume": 85102.85,
        "trend": 0.212167,
        "fair_value": 0.226731,
        "relative_strength": -41.468053,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -88.067289,
        "energy": 63.78709,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.171067,
          0.175691,
          0.185533,
          0.193359
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 0.142,
        "volume": 930735,
        "typical_volume": 115667.75,
        "trend": 0.2064,
        "fair_value": 0.225205,
        "relative_strength": -43.993526,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -87.994203,
        "energy": 79.280919,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.159933,
          0.168491,
          0.181057,
          0.188832
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}