{ "ticker": { "uuid": "132da19d-f848-4372-bbed-c900758668dc", "symbol": "2060", "name": "National Industrialization Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -30.54, "architecture_energy": 60.772, "architecture_maturity": 10.112, "architecture_confidence": 77.832, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.21, "rotation_up": 14.89, "upward_expansion": 28.67, "deceleration": 49.35, "rotation_down": 71.15, "downward_expansion": 58.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.871333, 9.065455, 9.380905, 9.378301 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 8.84, "trend_reference": 9.319, "distance_from_trend": -0.0514, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.739936, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.176904, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.758011, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": 0.031829, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.0514, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024086, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.176904, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051801, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.08758, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080311, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.534027, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3281270, "relative_activity": 0.67107, "balance": 0.534027, "dry_up": 0.547687, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042464, "annualized_volatility": 0.268713, "from_high_reference": -0.259631, "from_low_reference": 0.098137 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.319, "fair_value_reference": 10.739936, "structural_low": 8.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.011186, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.021834, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.11022, "worst_return": -0.114961, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.036184, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.034738, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.157315, "worst_return": -0.105263, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.052434, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.101485, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.034537, "worst_return": -0.247495, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"color": "red", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.172712, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.07085, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023853, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0827, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.087045, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.097238, 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9.591762, 9.484215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.04, "volume": 2004996, "typical_volume": 5293258.0, "trend": 9.344, "fair_value": 10.813654, "relative_strength": -6.669753, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.9833, "energy": 49.325023, "activity_lines": [ 9.182, 9.339636, 9.545667, 9.463871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.5, "volume": 3228749, "typical_volume": 4970990.1, "trend": 9.322333, "fair_value": 10.775833, "relative_strength": -10.336098, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -48.999237, "energy": 65.674035, "activity_lines": [ 8.944667, 9.158909, 9.446286, 9.409419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.84, "volume": 3281270, "typical_volume": 4889608.5, "trend": 9.319, "fair_value": 10.739936, "relative_strength": -8.758011, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.539896, "energy": 60.772007, "activity_lines": [ 8.871333, 9.065455, 9.380905, 9.378301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }