{ "ticker": { "uuid": "13311b40-bda7-4574-9e0b-7acf0622c254", "symbol": "300395", "name": "Hubei Feilihua Quartz Glass Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 73.938, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -38.371, "architecture_energy": 67.211, "architecture_maturity": 17.447, "architecture_confidence": 69.52, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.7, "rotation_up": 16.13, "upward_expansion": 23.13, "deceleration": 43.1, "rotation_down": 74.0, "downward_expansion": 64.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 82.992666, 95.982545, 107.791524, 108.670108 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 89.599998, "trend_reference": 107.704334, "distance_from_trend": -0.168093, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 58.329519, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.5361, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.128214, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.06725, "excess_performance": -0.074649, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.168093, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072311, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.5361, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.90355, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.101282, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.401078, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.06725, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.115107, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 135660253, "relative_activity": 1.031551, "balance": 1.115107, "dry_up": 0.898122, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.210594, "annualized_volatility": 0.92229, "from_high_reference": -0.416591, "from_low_reference": 0.317647 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 107.704334, "fair_value_reference": 58.329519, "structural_low": 69.800003, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.017488, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.014657, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.033751, "worst_return": -0.068727, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.075884, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.036352, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.024859, "worst_return": -0.126909, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.20552, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.261749, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.58657, "worst_return": -0.17553, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 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130501167, "typical_volume": 136630037.0, "trend": 109.109001, "fair_value": 57.844226, "relative_strength": -19.508941, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.568863, "energy": 49.560842, "activity_lines": [ 93.664667, 107.687637, 113.655858, 112.205592 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 72.769997, "volume": 101131488, "typical_volume": 133601885.7, "trend": 108.061001, "fair_value": 58.028168, "relative_strength": -23.321858, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -49.973001, "energy": 71.189959, "activity_lines": [ 83.283999, 99.692546, 109.824334, 109.86114 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 89.599998, "volume": 135660253, "typical_volume": 131510977.8, "trend": 107.704334, "fair_value": 58.329519, "relative_strength": -10.128214, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.370733, "energy": 67.210651, "activity_lines": [ 82.992666, 95.982545, 107.791524, 108.670108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }