{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1331b926-5ed6-49f9-8025-f68598884583", "symbol": "002615", "name": "ZheJiang Haers Vacuum Containers Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.012, "architecture_energy": 67.61, "architecture_maturity": 27.851, "architecture_confidence": 91.107, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.21, "rotation_up": 11.79, "upward_expansion": 15.06, "deceleration": 38.56, "rotation_down": 65.7, "downward_expansion": 86.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.495333, 6.760909, 7.260238, 7.56 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.53, "trend_reference": 7.897333, "distance_from_trend": -0.173139, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.405584, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.118233, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.034458, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.234467, "excess_performance": -0.241866, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.173139, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039254, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.118233, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.294616, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.210345, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0608, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.234467, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.426805, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33146566, "relative_activity": 0.682745, "balance": 0.426805, "dry_up": 0.976493, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.121805, "annualized_volatility": 0.511124, "from_high_reference": -0.333673, "from_low_reference": 0.077558 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.897333, "fair_value_reference": 7.405584, "structural_low": 6.06, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.061003, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.07477, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.262458, "worst_return": -0.03869, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.1, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.081816, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.417413, "worst_return": -0.02402, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.085167, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.192292, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.224151, "worst_return": -0.206068, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058537, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.081633, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.095361, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.049057, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.078382, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"trend": 8.068333, "fair_value": 7.41101, "relative_strength": -18.335127, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.798047, "energy": 62.97638, "activity_lines": [ 7.244, 7.509455, 7.79119, 7.964645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.66, "volume": 65853424, "typical_volume": 52446452.2, "trend": 8.038333, "fair_value": 7.411584, "relative_strength": -18.318072, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.639362, "energy": 61.331544, "activity_lines": [ 7.043333, 7.303455, 7.661952, 7.873785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.16, "volume": 55925065, "typical_volume": 50831334.35, "trend": 7.98, "fair_value": 7.407547, "relative_strength": -24.046144, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.115999, "energy": 50.336274, "activity_lines": [ 6.761333, 7.041818, 7.495952, 7.752602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.4, "volume": 34705866, "typical_volume": 49203703.15, "trend": 7.935333, "fair_value": 7.40566, "relative_strength": -19.213039, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.830053, "energy": 63.787787, "activity_lines": [ 6.610667, 6.871636, 7.366333, 7.650667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.53, "volume": 33146566, "typical_volume": 48548956.25, "trend": 7.897333, "fair_value": 7.405584, "relative_strength": -21.034458, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.011951, "energy": 67.610401, "activity_lines": [ 6.495333, 6.760909, 7.260238, 7.56 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }