{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1332313d-f4d7-4daa-aa89-eed3affe1742", "symbol": "CGIN", "name": "CI Global Investment Grade ETF (ETF C$ Series)", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 57.697, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.619, "architecture_energy": 39.979, "architecture_maturity": 2.286, "architecture_confidence": 64.342, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.96, "rotation_up": 9.01, "upward_expansion": 12.56, "deceleration": 51.4, "rotation_down": 66.08, "downward_expansion": 69.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.894331, 20.957006, 20.972999, 20.968608 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 20.9, "trend_reference": 20.975074, "distance_from_trend": -0.003579, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.16048, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.036682, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.375351, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.005866, "excess_performance": -0.126288, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003579, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001072, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.036682, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007057, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.113754, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00737, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.005866, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.615622, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30500, "relative_activity": 2.099105, "balance": 0.615622, "dry_up": 1.624226, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005502, "annualized_volatility": 0.032641, "from_high_reference": -0.024001, "from_low_reference": 0.019775 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.975074, "fair_value_reference": 20.16048, "structural_low": 20.703316, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.710581, "energy": 17.333511, "activity_lines": [ 21.030893, 21.036376, 20.997378, 20.990212 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.845999, "volume": 43700, "typical_volume": 13245.0, "trend": 20.980076, "fair_value": 20.149821, "relative_strength": -9.958588, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.558457, "energy": 16.046141, "activity_lines": [ 20.960371, 21.004654, 20.986663, 20.981391 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.860001, "volume": 12400, "typical_volume": 13705.0, "trend": 20.97806, "fair_value": 20.155042, "relative_strength": -9.091968, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.641878, "energy": 40.135152, "activity_lines": [ 20.913837, 20.976681, 20.977954, 20.973644 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.9, "volume": 30500, "typical_volume": 14530.0, "trend": 20.975074, "fair_value": 20.16048, "relative_strength": -11.375351, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.619293, "energy": 39.97918, "activity_lines": [ 20.894331, 20.957006, 20.972999, 20.968608 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }