{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1332811d-f9c5-4e8a-a6b7-f8c8fdb34c6e", "symbol": "SIHL", "name": "Symphony International Holdings Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.274, "architecture_energy": 18.153, "architecture_maturity": 28.084, "architecture_confidence": 60.701, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.84, "rotation_up": 26.06, "upward_expansion": 18.24, "deceleration": 41.45, "rotation_down": 30.89, "downward_expansion": 52.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.3854, 0.386164, 0.38489, 0.392222 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.356, "trend_reference": 0.403767, "distance_from_trend": -0.118303, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.382003, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.068071, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.027517, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.212389, "excess_performance": -0.263625, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.118303, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013358, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.068071, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.146308, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.170275, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.164971, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.212389, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.949432, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 74537, "relative_activity": 0.597976, "balance": 0.949432, "dry_up": 0.202782, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.123315, "annualized_volatility": 0.472627, "from_high_reference": -0.236052, "from_low_reference": 0.065868 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.403767, "fair_value_reference": 0.382003, "structural_low": 0.34, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.005801, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.015019, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.183845, "worst_return": -0.125799, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.016, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.028371, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.243038, "worst_return": -0.188406, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.058139, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.089008, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.272632, "worst_return": -0.227053, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.071142, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.073964, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.346622, "worst_return": -0.188406, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.046914, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035912, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.023739, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.109244, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.108434, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.039894, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.53559, "energy": 41.073619, "activity_lines": [ 0.366067, 0.372618, 0.390171, 0.400011 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 0.396, "volume": 8, "typical_volume": 256008.65, "trend": 0.407333, "fair_value": 0.382657, "relative_strength": -5.820161, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.209483, "energy": 25.992799, "activity_lines": [ 0.376667, 0.374964, 0.38951, 0.399305 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.379, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 254641.85, "trend": 0.407, "fair_value": 0.382439, "relative_strength": -11.0941, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.965343, "energy": 19.606381, "activity_lines": [ 0.3792, 0.374855, 0.387495, 0.397477 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.379, "volume": 35098, "typical_volume": 253971.45, "trend": 0.4066, "fair_value": 0.382247, "relative_strength": -9.388306, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.496379, "energy": 20.172338, "activity_lines": [ 0.381667, 0.375218, 0.385767, 0.395671 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.43, "volume": 3368, "typical_volume": 253050.35, "trend": 0.407767, "fair_value": 0.382458, "relative_strength": 1.795317, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.683748, "energy": 13.260823, "activity_lines": [ 0.399, 0.385218, 0.388948, 0.397181 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.394, "volume": 16522, "typical_volume": 123652.7, "trend": 0.407767, "fair_value": 0.382349, "relative_strength": -7.675795, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.314685, "energy": 16.040586, "activity_lines": [ 0.398733, 0.3884, 0.388629, 0.396292 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.395, "volume": 6679, "typical_volume": 121623.35, "trend": 0.406333, "fair_value": 0.382349, "relative_strength": -8.239733, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.210466, "energy": 13.091767, "activity_lines": [ 0.398533, 0.391145, 0.388571, 0.395469 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.356, "volume": 74537, "typical_volume": 124648.9, "trend": 0.403767, "fair_value": 0.382003, "relative_strength": -17.027517, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.273967, "energy": 18.153143, "activity_lines": [ 0.3854, 0.386164, 0.38489, 0.392222 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }