{ "ticker": { "uuid": "13329539-a11a-4f6e-acd2-e0ab10d746a9", "symbol": "NBIX", "name": "Neurocrine Biosciences Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 47.671, "architecture_energy": 38.559, "architecture_maturity": 75.786, "architecture_confidence": 50.53, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.81, "rotation_up": 40.76, "upward_expansion": 67.61, "deceleration": 65.35, "rotation_down": 26.7, "downward_expansion": 17.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 168.695333, 169.162364, 162.654333, 155.229742 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 163.41, "trend_reference": 146.743, "distance_from_trend": 0.11358, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 132.57266, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.232607, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.263695, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.157295, "excess_performance": -0.030159, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.11358, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050719, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.232607, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032215, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.012637, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053311, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.157295, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.042703, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6343106, "relative_activity": 1.07446, "balance": 1.042703, "dry_up": 1.16869, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0654, "annualized_volatility": 0.344775, "from_high_reference": -0.122018, "from_low_reference": 0.337891 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 146.743, "fair_value_reference": 132.57266, "structural_low": 122.14, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.005833, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.00831, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.152708, "worst_return": -0.225509, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.002519, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.027624, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.218862, "worst_return": -0.25043, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.039549, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.047898, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.274092, "worst_return": -0.19882, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 177.11, "volume": 5338612, "typical_volume": 5546045.85, "trend": 143.069333, "fair_value": 130.851699, "relative_strength": 7.087936, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.326812, "energy": 78.957351, "activity_lines": [ 170.966, 166.290545, 155.122857, 148.837011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 170.88, "volume": 5336548, "typical_volume": 5558341.35, "trend": 143.932, "fair_value": 131.313814, "relative_strength": 7.717717, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.066588, "energy": 76.311262, "activity_lines": [ 172.063333, 167.768909, 157.459762, 150.631247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 175.77, "volume": 5708006, "typical_volume": 5555845.45, "trend": 144.949, "fair_value": 131.781891, "relative_strength": 12.382503, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.071051, "energy": 71.794043, "activity_lines": [ 174.049333, 169.797636, 160.078429, 152.685312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 166.8, "volume": 10209902, "typical_volume": 5857496.75, "trend": 145.822333, "fair_value": 132.199647, "relative_strength": 5.985592, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.947691, "energy": 52.235159, "activity_lines": [ 171.88, 169.88, 161.615952, 154.095054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 163.41, "volume": 6343106, "typical_volume": 5903527.1, "trend": 146.743, "fair_value": 132.57266, "relative_strength": -1.263695, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.671067, "energy": 38.559474, "activity_lines": [ 168.695333, 169.162364, 162.654333, 155.229742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }