{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1337931f-d27e-4c1b-bf1b-2ba0166ad857", "symbol": "ACET", "name": "Adicet Bio Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 51.832, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 29.031, "architecture_energy": 13.292, "architecture_maturity": 40.5, "architecture_confidence": 73.428, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.99, "rotation_up": 32.52, "upward_expansion": 57.34, "deceleration": 82.16, "rotation_down": 28.49, "downward_expansion": 21.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.318667, 8.364909, 8.274143, 8.054344 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 7.98, "trend_reference": 7.848333, "distance_from_trend": 0.016776, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.690467, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.54891, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -25.197273, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.135135, "excess_performance": -0.052318, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.016776, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032161, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.54891, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065845, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.251973, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043428, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.135135, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.012155, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 534620, "relative_activity": 1.035556, "balance": 1.012155, "dry_up": 0.941858, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.157917, "annualized_volatility": 0.660573, "from_high_reference": -0.542389, "from_low_reference": 0.327787 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.848333, "fair_value_reference": 17.690467, "structural_low": 6.01, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.001697, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.012081, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.239669, "worst_return": -0.357143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.006584, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.059536, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.370652, "worst_return": -0.384473, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.359858, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.465223, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.630435, "worst_return": -0.456324, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.217771, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.281539, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.942391, "worst_return": -0.506849, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2022-12-16", "end": "2022-12-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.048936, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-01-06", "end": "2024-01-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.711217, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018018, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.183673, 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"2025-06-13", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.119552, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.27825, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.230639, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.03808, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.066667, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 29.92, "volume": 2412691, "typical_volume": 3510334.25, "trend": 87.738667, "fair_value": 186.382564, "relative_strength": 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18.524056, "relative_strength": -20.920538, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.663469, "energy": 43.116615, "activity_lines": [ 8.634, 8.429273, 8.141524, 7.951052 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.12, "volume": 508922, "typical_volume": 532915.3, "trend": 7.858, "fair_value": 18.274569, "relative_strength": -23.157503, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.901747, "energy": 38.067256, "activity_lines": [ 8.517333, 8.388364, 8.168857, 7.96843 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.79, "volume": 462275, "typical_volume": 535290.2, "trend": 7.840333, "fair_value": 18.057838, "relative_strength": -24.076646, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.729087, "energy": 18.450042, "activity_lines": [ 8.286, 8.295273, 8.160619, 7.964043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.11, "volume": 439171, "typical_volume": 523057.4, "trend": 7.85, "fair_value": 17.87521, "relative_strength": -10.988907, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.25593, "energy": 28.655524, "activity_lines": [ 8.515333, 8.440182, 8.275714, 8.045957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.98, "volume": 534620, "typical_volume": 516263.5, "trend": 7.848333, "fair_value": 17.690467, "relative_strength": -25.197273, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.031367, "energy": 13.29242, "activity_lines": [ 8.318667, 8.364909, 8.274143, 8.054344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }