{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1340bda7-65ec-43b0-8af0-9fd7e39dbb91", "symbol": "600331", "name": "Sichuan Hongda Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 58.625, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.16, "architecture_energy": 32.651, "architecture_maturity": 64.87, "architecture_confidence": 73.407, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.27, "rotation_up": 27.05, "upward_expansion": 17.52, "deceleration": 46.85, "rotation_down": 35.91, "downward_expansion": 67.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.524, 12.166, 13.353286, 14.219527 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.88, "trend_reference": 15.000667, "distance_from_trend": -0.074708, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.698654, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.595649, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.425499, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.146371, "excess_performance": -0.103168, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.074708, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02006, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.595649, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.699004, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.054255, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.352139, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.146371, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.864072, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 299611124, "relative_activity": 1.208649, "balance": 0.864072, "dry_up": 1.209181, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.114997, "annualized_volatility": 0.551049, "from_high_reference": -0.390694, "from_low_reference": 0.51694 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.000667, "fair_value_reference": 8.698654, "structural_low": 9.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.049645, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": 0.010887, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.13871, "worst_return": -0.120743, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.154386, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.123516, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.332779, "worst_return": -0.117647, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.13335, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.097952, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.391549, "worst_return": 0.018576, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"gate": "down", "direction": -70.233196, "energy": 86.696083, "activity_lines": [ 11.207333, 12.147455, 13.906905, 14.649806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.8, "volume": 381738618, "typical_volume": 257778688.1, "trend": 14.971, "fair_value": 8.587244, "relative_strength": -6.649382, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.94565, "energy": 70.636047, "activity_lines": [ 11.320667, 11.900727, 13.600905, 14.445677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.55, "volume": 243780577, "typical_volume": 253659930.9, "trend": 14.964333, "fair_value": 8.638333, "relative_strength": -1.503528, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.505496, "energy": 53.234489, "activity_lines": [ 11.750667, 11.880545, 13.401809, 14.289484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.88, "volume": 299611124, "typical_volume": 247889221.9, "trend": 15.000667, "fair_value": 8.698654, "relative_strength": 5.425499, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.160069, "energy": 32.65107, "activity_lines": [ 12.524, 12.166, 13.353286, 14.219527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }