{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1346185b-b78e-4a8e-83bf-03d506e22e9e", "symbol": "CPRI", "name": "Capri Holdings Ltd", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.196, "architecture_energy": 77.907, "architecture_maturity": 22.536, "architecture_confidence": 79.58, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.49, "rotation_up": 8.65, "upward_expansion": 17.03, "deceleration": 37.05, "rotation_down": 81.46, "downward_expansion": 95.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.826, 17.049091, 17.97081, 18.401871 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 15.31, "trend_reference": 19.299, "distance_from_trend": -0.206695, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 29.358333, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.478513, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.320081, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.241328, "excess_performance": -0.366953, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.206695, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103623, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.478513, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075907, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.343201, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140837, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.241328, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.742176, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26758407, "relative_activity": 1.747232, "balance": 0.742176, "dry_up": 1.249478, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.127782, "annualized_volatility": 0.446977, "from_high_reference": -0.458341, "from_low_reference": 0.03621 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.299, "fair_value_reference": 29.358333, "structural_low": 14.775, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.000559, "positive_rate": 0.517241, "directional_follow_through": 0.482759, "median_excess_return": -0.034252, "regime_survival": 0.758621, "best_return": 0.451856, "worst_return": -0.304598, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.016687, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.030417, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.436008, "worst_return": -0.344625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.063239, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.080215, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.227229, "worst_return": -0.384658, "sufficient": true }, { 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decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.379086, "energy": 21.427385, "activity_lines": [ 19.076667, 19.148727, 19.128238, 19.521591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.38, "volume": 18908329, "typical_volume": 14715186.1, "trend": 20.259667, "fair_value": 29.865, "relative_strength": -28.182446, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.125875, "energy": 54.779742, "activity_lines": [ 18.001333, 18.678182, 18.873571, 19.252215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.44, "volume": 15021713, "typical_volume": 14665236.35, "trend": 19.941333, "fair_value": 29.726346, "relative_strength": -31.461784, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.464366, "energy": 72.578844, "activity_lines": [ 16.942667, 18.075818, 18.549048, 18.941269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.93, "volume": 15853313, "typical_volume": 14523513.7, "trend": 19.659333, "fair_value": 29.600833, "relative_strength": -29.774113, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.207648, "energy": 75.26465, "activity_lines": [ 16.372667, 17.595636, 18.283143, 18.682473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.31, "volume": 26758407, "typical_volume": 15314745.4, "trend": 19.299, "fair_value": 29.358333, "relative_strength": -34.320081, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.196116, "energy": 77.906601, "activity_lines": [ 15.826, 17.049091, 17.97081, 18.401871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }