{ "ticker": { "uuid": "134b580e-6ba6-4d50-acbd-496979f801ba", "symbol": "PNOR", "name": "PetroNor E&P ASA", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 62.687, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.573, "architecture_energy": 23.447, "architecture_maturity": 26.157, "architecture_confidence": 60.339, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.17, "rotation_up": 17.8, "upward_expansion": 20.61, "deceleration": 61.11, "rotation_down": 57.87, "downward_expansion": 41.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.588, 10.72, 11.39364, 11.13742 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 10.42, "trend_reference": 10.615371, "distance_from_trend": -0.018405, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.204293, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.44636, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.324729, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.25042, "excess_performance": 0.125427, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.018405, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085883, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.44636, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.663259, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.033247, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.389521, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.25042, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.484255, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1510117, "relative_activity": 0.661891, "balance": 0.484255, "dry_up": 0.676308, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102652, "annualized_volatility": 0.512748, "from_high_reference": -0.306817, "from_low_reference": 0.334646 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.615371, "fair_value_reference": 7.204293, "structural_low": 7.928672, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.015564, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.005112, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.161135, "worst_return": -0.081218, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.045703, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.045451, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.219733, "worst_return": -0.121951, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.046731, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.022127, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.243144, "worst_return": -0.065913, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 11.32, "volume": 1703762, "typical_volume": 2428465.0, "trend": 10.506994, "fair_value": 7.133139, "relative_strength": 5.776567, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.755902, "energy": 18.193215, "activity_lines": [ 10.738667, 11.091636, 11.587031, 11.152541 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.42, "volume": 1415304, "typical_volume": 2375445.05, "trend": 10.567385, "fair_value": 7.168854, "relative_strength": -3.030436, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.330083, "energy": 20.68489, "activity_lines": [ 10.650667, 10.867273, 11.493262, 11.146928 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.42, "volume": 1510117, "typical_volume": 2281517.85, "trend": 10.615371, "fair_value": 7.204293, "relative_strength": -3.324729, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.572645, "energy": 23.447099, "activity_lines": [ 10.588, 10.72, 11.39364, 11.13742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }