{ "ticker": { "uuid": "134c63de-4bd5-4a72-be69-d62021bb4ad9", "symbol": "ELSA", "name": "ELSA Solutions S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 58.026, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -16.883, "architecture_energy": 26.033, "architecture_maturity": 24.205, "architecture_confidence": 68.333, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.71, "rotation_up": 20.51, "upward_expansion": 18.49, "deceleration": 56.83, "rotation_down": 48.26, "downward_expansion": 43.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.172, 2.181091, 2.242667, 2.22572 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.2, "trend_reference": 2.209667, "distance_from_trend": -0.004375, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.93474, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.250359, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.515519, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.1, "excess_performance": -0.070892, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004375, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02823, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.250359, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076843, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.065155, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.234244, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.1, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.769231, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4500, "relative_activity": 0.400891, "balance": 0.769231, "dry_up": 0.434298, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046853, "annualized_volatility": 0.315042, "from_high_reference": -0.251701, "from_low_reference": 0.62963 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.209667, "fair_value_reference": 2.93474, "structural_low": 1.81, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.011895, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.168317, "worst_return": -0.028846, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.125, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.059629, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.125, "worst_return": 0.125, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.067485, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052941, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009524, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.173077, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.09375, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017857, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-09-29", "close": 4.391, "volume": 6000, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-10-06", "close": 4.85, "volume": 6500, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-10-13", "close": 5.4, "volume": 25500, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, 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12350.0, "trend": 2.221333, "fair_value": 2.950415, "relative_strength": -3.223627, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.171333, "energy": 27.802337, "activity_lines": [ 2.181333, 2.221091, 2.262619, 2.236903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.18, "volume": 11500, "typical_volume": 12075.0, "trend": 2.229667, "fair_value": 2.945209, "relative_strength": -3.362024, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.062411, "energy": 30.155927, "activity_lines": [ 2.177333, 2.206182, 2.25819, 2.234237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.12, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 11700.0, "trend": 2.222333, "fair_value": 2.939671, "relative_strength": -6.94012, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.565807, "energy": 39.839738, "activity_lines": [ 2.161333, 2.184364, 2.247, 2.227161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.2, "volume": 4500, "typical_volume": 11225.0, "trend": 2.209667, "fair_value": 2.93474, "relative_strength": -6.515519, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.883295, "energy": 26.033145, "activity_lines": [ 2.172, 2.181091, 2.242667, 2.22572 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }