{ "ticker": { "uuid": "13502152-54af-4990-9ffc-84d40babef3f", "symbol": "002671", "name": "Shandong Longquan Pipe Industry Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.631, "architecture_energy": 59.12, "architecture_maturity": 78.655, "architecture_confidence": 92.43, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.04, "rotation_up": 26.07, "upward_expansion": 10.74, "deceleration": 60.57, "rotation_down": 52.39, "downward_expansion": 81.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.71, 3.762727, 4.048952, 4.366065 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.84, "trend_reference": 4.787333, "distance_from_trend": -0.197883, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.619295, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.168704, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.954147, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.329843, "excess_performance": -0.337243, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.197883, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093194, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.168704, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.228917, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.249541, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040139, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.329843, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.403052, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 60392326, "relative_activity": 1.0312, "balance": 0.403052, "dry_up": 1.098682, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086739, "annualized_volatility": 0.364695, "from_high_reference": -0.386581, "from_low_reference": 0.1261 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.787333, "fair_value_reference": 4.619295, "structural_low": 3.41, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.022989, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.004844, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.190476, "worst_return": -0.128049, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.008417, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.047055, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.463807, "worst_return": -0.219512, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.260697, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.028131, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.355615, "worst_return": -0.150358, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.097996, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004785, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.110024, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038202, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.085339, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.640693, "energy": 86.74555, "activity_lines": [ 3.795333, 3.946182, 4.289857, 4.60286 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.47, "volume": 72176816, "typical_volume": 59037122.25, "trend": 4.889, "fair_value": 4.627372, "relative_strength": -30.836007, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.268545, "energy": 80.514964, "activity_lines": [ 3.680667, 3.829091, 4.179571, 4.507548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.69, "volume": 53636800, "typical_volume": 58681937.8, "trend": 4.834, "fair_value": 4.623013, "relative_strength": -24.705426, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.121716, "energy": 63.864076, "activity_lines": [ 3.669333, 3.773818, 4.102, 4.430194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.84, "volume": 60392326, "typical_volume": 58565080.2, "trend": 4.787333, "fair_value": 4.619295, "relative_strength": -24.954147, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.630828, "energy": 59.119884, "activity_lines": [ 3.71, 3.762727, 4.048952, 4.366065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }