{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1352a2b7-dc7a-4965-85a5-6ecd3db4cca2", "symbol": "ECPG", "name": "Encore Capital Group Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.659, "architecture_energy": 65.711, "architecture_maturity": 34.434, "architecture_confidence": 77.497, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.83, "rotation_up": 71.76, "upward_expansion": 85.64, "deceleration": 56.19, "rotation_down": 17.5, "downward_expansion": 9.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 94.868333, 92.246727, 87.942524, 83.516839 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 100.2, "trend_reference": 76.600167, "distance_from_trend": 0.308091, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 51.102724, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.960757, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 38.620606, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.735065, "excess_performance": 0.547611, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.308091, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.191188, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.960757, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.210262, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.386206, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032471, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.735065, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.8684, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1974339, "relative_activity": 1.206307, "balance": 0.8684, "dry_up": 1.086555, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061989, "annualized_volatility": 0.298909, "from_high_reference": -0.015669, "from_low_reference": 1.572133 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 76.600167, "fair_value_reference": 51.102724, "structural_low": 55.9, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.025074, "positive_rate": 0.56, "directional_follow_through": 0.56, "median_excess_return": 0.019767, "regime_survival": 0.64, "best_return": 0.223896, "worst_return": -0.300282, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.049109, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.03691, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.242041, "worst_return": -0.30388, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.014894, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.076674, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.508935, "worst_return": -0.288709, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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64.001697, "activity_lines": [ 87.254667, 84.738, 81.492143, 76.741462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 92.58, "volume": 1893466, "typical_volume": 1650147.7, "trend": 71.472, "fair_value": 50.017051, "relative_strength": 34.554911, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.425509, "energy": 80.006112, "activity_lines": [ 89.642667, 86.370545, 82.937667, 78.18686 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 91.33, "volume": 1078897, "typical_volume": 1600796.6, "trend": 72.699, "fair_value": 50.264487, "relative_strength": 36.776987, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.210978, "energy": 80.239763, "activity_lines": [ 90.872667, 87.607091, 84.101429, 79.468022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 90.155, "volume": 2325304, "typical_volume": 1618148.3, "trend": 73.8535, "fair_value": 50.504583, "relative_strength": 35.488836, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.786033, "energy": 62.396042, "activity_lines": [ 91.045, 88.494545, 85.043571, 80.594215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 94.08, "volume": 1734837, "typical_volume": 1622007.85, "trend": 75.125833, "fair_value": 50.783878, "relative_strength": 38.652596, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.67187, "energy": 57.880743, "activity_lines": [ 92.052, 89.940455, 86.266786, 81.899151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 100.2, "volume": 1974339, "typical_volume": 1636680.8, "trend": 76.600167, "fair_value": 51.102724, "relative_strength": 38.620606, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.659012, "energy": 65.710798, "activity_lines": [ 94.868333, 92.246727, 87.942524, 83.516839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }