{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1356dfbd-4e4d-4e87-9a9d-58fed05ddbd1", "symbol": "SHW", "name": "The Sherwin-Williams Company", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 50.745, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 47.191, "architecture_energy": 42.561, "architecture_maturity": 31.741, "architecture_confidence": 83.433, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.53, "rotation_up": 67.84, "upward_expansion": 45.65, "deceleration": 38.63, "rotation_down": 19.22, "downward_expansion": 20.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 5951.533333, 5880.808922, 5714.85106, 5716.3173 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 6213.0, "trend_reference": 5786.058594, "distance_from_trend": 0.073788, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6074.600827, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.022783, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.810216, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.009128, "excess_performance": 0.045539, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.073788, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013988, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.022783, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08818, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.008102, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.207863, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.009128, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.416871, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 115, "relative_activity": 0.178766, "balance": 1.416871, "dry_up": 0.089771, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032873, "annualized_volatility": 0.254492, "from_high_reference": -0.103746, "from_low_reference": 0.195288 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5786.058594, "fair_value_reference": 6074.600827, "structural_low": 5197.910156, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.04115, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.026991, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.101627, "worst_return": -0.071276, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.102267, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.150192, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.05612, "worst_return": -0.159375, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.129937, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.238435, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.165518, "worst_return": -0.133411, "sufficient": false }, { 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false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.051361, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.048726, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032776, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.007321, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014347, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", 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42.56096, "activity_lines": [ 5951.533333, 5880.808922, 5714.85106, 5716.3173 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }