{ "ticker": { "uuid": "135d1f94-f934-46d8-94e0-3416f7f6badf", "symbol": "688557", "name": "BlueSword Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.4, "architecture_energy": 62.462, "architecture_maturity": 49.704, "architecture_confidence": 88.234, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.18, "rotation_up": 12.13, "upward_expansion": 12.96, "deceleration": 39.24, "rotation_down": 66.93, "downward_expansion": 86.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.190666, 19.850025, 20.854401, 21.642771 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 20.219999, "trend_reference": 23.011335, "distance_from_trend": -0.121303, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.783983, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.136978, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.165204, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.255284, "excess_performance": -0.21208, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.121303, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068209, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.136978, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.244845, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.151652, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078837, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.255284, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.630792, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7426011, "relative_activity": 0.728337, "balance": 0.630792, "dry_up": 0.759425, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.112627, "annualized_volatility": 0.475523, "from_high_reference": -0.332428, "from_low_reference": 0.195742 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.011335, "fair_value_reference": 17.783983, "structural_low": 16.91, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.000852, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.00894, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.192352, "worst_return": -0.128866, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.025239, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.036406, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.27261, "worst_return": -0.123468, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.028682, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.06954, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.326873, "worst_return": -0.145591, "sufficient": false }, { 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"relative_strength": -18.190006, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.173067, "energy": 43.549219, "activity_lines": [ 20.664087, 20.945471, 21.691475, 22.51482 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.559999, "volume": 6925982, "typical_volume": 10565646.05, "trend": 23.35935, "fair_value": 17.740648, "relative_strength": -24.546088, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.882315, "energy": 53.32488, "activity_lines": [ 19.514547, 20.230963, 21.259823, 22.12673 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.799999, "volume": 6984820, "typical_volume": 10274574.55, "trend": 23.162015, "fair_value": 17.755411, "relative_strength": -19.261541, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.687564, "energy": 67.566909, "activity_lines": [ 19.053297, 19.865055, 20.978001, 21.832579 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.219999, "volume": 7426011, "typical_volume": 10195838.0, "trend": 23.011335, "fair_value": 17.783983, "relative_strength": -15.165204, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.400304, "energy": 62.461963, "activity_lines": [ 19.190666, 19.850025, 20.854401, 21.642771 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }