{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1361f5c2-19a7-48d0-a240-37353180b3ae", "symbol": "QCN", "name": "Mackenzie Canadian Equity Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 91.228, "architecture_energy": 79.324, "architecture_maturity": 37.991, "architecture_confidence": 78.043, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.92, "rotation_up": 75.77, "upward_expansion": 93.1, "deceleration": 45.91, "rotation_down": 19.01, "downward_expansion": 15.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 218.017336, 216.396079, 213.454332, 210.540142 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 222.460007, "trend_reference": 206.978176, "distance_from_trend": 0.074799, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 155.75015, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.428313, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.728013, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.125748, "excess_performance": 0.005327, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074799, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042831, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.428313, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021008, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.00728, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 9.8e-05, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.125748, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.524454, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19500, "relative_activity": 0.522158, "balance": 2.524454, "dry_up": 0.902397, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015651, "annualized_volatility": 0.13017, "from_high_reference": -0.000584, "from_low_reference": 0.338218 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 206.978176, "fair_value_reference": 155.75015, "structural_low": 190.181747, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 46, "median_return": 0.013606, "positive_rate": 0.673913, "directional_follow_through": 0.673913, "median_excess_return": 0.002045, "regime_survival": 0.804348, "best_return": 0.053608, "worst_return": -0.079677, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.02225, "positive_rate": 0.733333, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": 0.007696, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.104658, "worst_return": -0.123093, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.069707, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": 0.015205, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.196707, "worst_return": -0.09916, "sufficient": true }, { 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205.416931, "fair_value": 154.412325, "relative_strength": 0.674243, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.827748, "energy": 77.685703, "activity_lines": [ 215.548668, 214.368134, 211.418118, 208.820124 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 215.779999, "volume": 35300, "typical_volume": 38170.0, "trend": 206.162798, "fair_value": 155.062553, "relative_strength": 0.94203, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.133252, "energy": 63.117712, "activity_lines": [ 215.750001, 214.826282, 212.160134, 209.48871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 222.460007, "volume": 19500, "typical_volume": 37345.0, "trend": 206.978176, "fair_value": 155.75015, "relative_strength": 0.728013, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 91.228348, "energy": 79.323724, "activity_lines": [ 218.017336, 216.396079, 213.454332, 210.540142 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }