{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1367e339-9963-4ff3-980b-4a143d350aee", "symbol": "SPMLINFRA", "name": "SPML Infra Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 78.544, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 7.241, "architecture_energy": 5.065, "architecture_maturity": 25.683, "architecture_confidence": 57.345, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 66.07, "rotation_up": 24.89, "upward_expansion": 46.71, "deceleration": 74.51, "rotation_down": 25.05, "downward_expansion": 27.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 194.641334, 195.799455, 198.323523, 194.794688 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 189.940002, "trend_reference": 189.639, "distance_from_trend": 0.001587, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 177.243398, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.071634, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.769045, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.060051, "excess_performance": 0.103761, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001587, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011226, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.071634, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.259309, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.06769, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117726, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.060051, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.415399, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 629429, "relative_activity": 0.371017, "balance": 1.415399, "dry_up": 0.672813, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077057, "annualized_volatility": 0.358537, "from_high_reference": -0.387093, "from_low_reference": 0.257798 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 189.639, "fair_value_reference": 177.243398, "structural_low": 151.009995, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.020284, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.004438, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.391509, "worst_return": -0.190899, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.14231, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.096515, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 4.254717, "worst_return": -0.235104, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.825454, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.763996, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 5.226415, "worst_return": -0.409524, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.160528, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.153956, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.378051, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.10466, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.176591, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", 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205.800003, "volume": 2336928, "typical_volume": 4172322.0, "trend": 187.957, "fair_value": 174.2775, "relative_strength": -0.32155, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.689014, "energy": 19.545714, "activity_lines": [ 199.165333, 198.551636, 198.635951, 193.803161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 199.389999, "volume": 1035052, "typical_volume": 2218698.3, "trend": 188.804666, "fair_value": 175.307564, "relative_strength": -0.54618, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.162891, "energy": 16.908815, "activity_lines": [ 199.441999, 198.590727, 199.200285, 194.540774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 191.75, "volume": 564287, "typical_volume": 1757985.0, "trend": 188.949666, "fair_value": 176.278398, "relative_strength": -5.932431, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.476549, "energy": 8.889776, "activity_lines": [ 197.099333, 197.226182, 198.910142, 194.730795 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 189.940002, "volume": 629429, "typical_volume": 1696494.7, "trend": 189.639, "fair_value": 177.243398, "relative_strength": -6.769045, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.240836, "energy": 5.065169, "activity_lines": [ 194.641334, 195.799455, 198.323523, 194.794688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }