{ "ticker": { "uuid": "13687e78-5871-4db9-a8d7-2067123818bd", "symbol": "BKEM", "name": "BNY MELLON ETF TR EMERGING MKTS EQUITY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 78.989, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 11.11, "architecture_energy": 15.021, "architecture_maturity": 54.21, "architecture_confidence": 88.228, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.55, "rotation_up": 17.53, "upward_expansion": 44.81, "deceleration": 87.47, "rotation_down": 36.97, "downward_expansion": 27.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.64888, 30.042782, 30.161255, 29.590355 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 30.0409, "trend_reference": 28.81913, "distance_from_trend": 0.042394, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.461116, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.399783, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.253232, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.105917, "excess_performance": -0.019708, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.042394, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070732, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.399783, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135047, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.002532, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132719, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.105917, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.418796, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28353, "relative_activity": 1.563807, "balance": 4.418796, "dry_up": 2.758504, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057418, "annualized_volatility": 0.281651, "from_high_reference": -0.095339, "from_low_reference": 0.355633 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.81913, "fair_value_reference": 21.461116, "structural_low": 25.253726, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.009783, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.012605, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.151348, "worst_return": -0.053083, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.048814, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.004465, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.213286, "worst_return": 0.003372, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.082159, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.0613, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.211805, "worst_return": 0.019671, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035817, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013306, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.070548, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027339, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.195536, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004486, "active": false }, { 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"2026-07-24", "close": 29.17, "volume": 126365, "typical_volume": 16278.7, "trend": 28.538679, "fair_value": 21.30065, "relative_strength": 2.259345, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.985278, "energy": 19.324597, "activity_lines": [ 29.714217, 30.306222, 30.084884, 29.43692 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.5541, "volume": 37847, "typical_volume": 17465.15, "trend": 28.678083, "fair_value": 21.378003, "relative_strength": 2.266163, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.189741, "energy": 17.956691, "activity_lines": [ 29.553925, 30.124039, 30.107635, 29.502431 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.0409, "volume": 28353, "typical_volume": 18130.75, "trend": 28.81913, "fair_value": 21.461116, "relative_strength": 0.253232, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.109698, "energy": 15.020841, "activity_lines": [ 29.64888, 30.042782, 30.161255, 29.590355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }