{ "ticker": { "uuid": "13695b2c-a37d-444e-a1db-c10564f14be5", "symbol": "002318", "name": "Zhejiang JIULI Hi-tech Metals Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.277, "architecture_energy": 77.985, "architecture_maturity": 34.0, "architecture_confidence": 95.733, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.21, "rotation_up": 16.05, "upward_expansion": 18.67, "deceleration": 39.69, "rotation_down": 65.1, "downward_expansion": 89.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.489333, 20.508363, 22.61059, 24.522075 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.969999, "trend_reference": 26.757684, "distance_from_trend": -0.253672, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.990684, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.091888, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.975544, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.381647, "excess_performance": -0.389047, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.253672, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0439, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.091888, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.432202, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.239755, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.153781, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.381647, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.558765, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 66940536, "relative_activity": 1.392989, "balance": 0.558765, "dry_up": 1.498459, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.109477, "annualized_volatility": 0.465826, "from_high_reference": -0.424593, "from_low_reference": 0.166472 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.757684, "fair_value_reference": 21.990684, "structural_low": 17.120001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.058009, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.034511, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.402204, "worst_return": -0.177546, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.207687, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.190524, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.251135, "worst_return": 0.1067, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.301676, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.354658, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.598714, "worst_return": 0.147252, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.942677, "energy": 87.752388, "activity_lines": [ 19.619333, 21.214043, 23.609748, 25.433594 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.16, "volume": 64086347, "typical_volume": 47000664.2, "trend": 27.018723, "fair_value": 21.963173, "relative_strength": -19.592116, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.498895, "energy": 86.270936, "activity_lines": [ 19.492, 20.831273, 23.091992, 24.976831 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.969999, "volume": 66940536, "typical_volume": 48055339.6, "trend": 26.757684, "fair_value": 21.990684, "relative_strength": -23.975544, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.276576, "energy": 77.984717, "activity_lines": [ 19.489333, 20.508363, 22.61059, 24.522075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }