{ "ticker": { "uuid": "13746ca7-c928-4808-86db-a42d81c9d98c", "symbol": "HDIL", "name": "Housing Development and Infrastructure Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -84.754, "architecture_energy": 91.924, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 18.38, "upward_expansion": 21.79, "deceleration": 37.07, "rotation_down": 76.1, "downward_expansion": 99.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.642667, 1.695455, 1.812286, 1.916753 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.57, "trend_reference": 2.048667, "distance_from_trend": -0.233648, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.4, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.538235, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.763034, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.398467, "excess_performance": -0.354758, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.233648, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113259, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.538235, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131293, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.32763, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106365, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.398467, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.02185, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1292196, "relative_activity": 2.547946, "balance": 0.02185, "dry_up": 1.373746, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064674, "annualized_volatility": 0.343881, "from_high_reference": -0.532738, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.048667, "fair_value_reference": 3.4, "structural_low": 1.57, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.04023, "positive_rate": 0.405405, "directional_follow_through": 0.594595, "median_excess_return": -0.047081, "regime_survival": 0.837838, "best_return": 0.408163, "worst_return": -0.337662, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.097661, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.069637, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.8, "worst_return": -0.272085, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.181856, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.169403, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.754717, "worst_return": -0.390805, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"color": "red", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.097561, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.18835, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.133038, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.127764, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.10089, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.051136, "active": false }, { "regime": 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[ 1.724667, 1.792727, 1.904905, 2.004753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.68, "volume": 440461, "typical_volume": 427420.05, "trend": 2.095, "fair_value": 3.415128, "relative_strength": -27.335385, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.61227, "energy": 87.156151, "activity_lines": [ 1.701333, 1.761636, 1.87481, 1.97643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.67, "volume": 353522, "typical_volume": 443924.55, "trend": 2.07, "fair_value": 3.408846, "relative_strength": -28.907999, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.423453, "energy": 86.46151, "activity_lines": [ 1.684, 1.734727, 1.846952, 1.949011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.57, "volume": 1292196, "typical_volume": 507151.95, "trend": 2.048667, "fair_value": 3.4, "relative_strength": -32.763034, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.753653, "energy": 91.92446, "activity_lines": [ 1.642667, 1.695455, 1.812286, 1.916753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }