{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1375bd73-d785-4888-b0f5-fc1509973fac", "symbol": "1809", "name": "China Glaze Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 6.77, "architecture_energy": 19.376, "architecture_maturity": 68.022, "architecture_confidence": 74.485, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.57, "rotation_up": 15.97, "upward_expansion": 41.18, "deceleration": 87.36, "rotation_down": 41.02, "downward_expansion": 32.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.336688, 40.717211, 41.734178, 38.786415 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 40.150002, "trend_reference": 34.553406, "distance_from_trend": 0.161969, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.998671, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.82511, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 10.114191, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.719256, "excess_performance": 0.277884, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.161969, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.328479, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.82511, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.142718, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.101142, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.188029, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.719256, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.850502, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17425121, "relative_activity": 0.511545, "balance": 1.850502, "dry_up": 0.341923, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.222854, "annualized_volatility": 0.983255, "from_high_reference": -0.346238, "from_low_reference": 1.533073 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.553406, "fair_value_reference": 21.998671, "structural_low": 22.508437, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.045376, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.005225, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.617934, "worst_return": -0.113458, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.124726, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.018584, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.447644, "worst_return": -0.180022, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.29245, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.017183, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.571866, "worst_return": -0.262412, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.200111, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.063685, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.240833, "worst_return": 0.159389, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045872, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.498575, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.033865, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.077253, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation 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42.194111, 38.145707 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.200001, "volume": 9490554, "typical_volume": 38544141.45, "trend": 33.189083, "fair_value": 21.688517, "relative_strength": -5.362847, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.573652, "energy": 19.080808, "activity_lines": [ 38.523772, 43.231988, 41.654733, 38.11385 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.299999, "volume": 12846488, "typical_volume": 34583593.2, "trend": 33.836166, "fair_value": 21.83614, "relative_strength": 6.500337, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.209214, "energy": 25.462092, "activity_lines": [ 36.913125, 41.661165, 41.570772, 38.379071 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 40.150002, "volume": 17425121, "typical_volume": 34063683.0, "trend": 34.553406, "fair_value": 21.998671, "relative_strength": 10.114191, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.77021, "energy": 19.3764, "activity_lines": [ 37.336688, 40.717211, 41.734178, 38.786415 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }