{ "ticker": { "uuid": "137c0f85-dfc3-4431-b5ef-fe7a7184973a", "symbol": "SMPL", "name": "Simply Good Foods Co", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.373, "architecture_energy": 70.248, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.558, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.78, "rotation_up": 12.29, "upward_expansion": 17.83, "deceleration": 35.0, "rotation_down": 69.25, "downward_expansion": 86.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.787333, 11.534909, 11.881476, 12.517839 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 11.1, "trend_reference": 13.855167, "distance_from_trend": -0.198855, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 29.634583, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.625438, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -46.249305, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.359492, "excess_performance": -0.546946, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.198855, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.159197, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.625438, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011852, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.462493, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.101744, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.359492, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.939395, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10296445, "relative_activity": 0.778767, "balance": 0.939395, "dry_up": 0.940167, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.123283, "annualized_volatility": 0.632309, "from_high_reference": -0.634387, "from_low_reference": 0.124051 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.855167, "fair_value_reference": 29.634583, "structural_low": 9.875, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.014055, "positive_rate": 0.481481, "directional_follow_through": 0.518519, "median_excess_return": -0.008605, "regime_survival": 0.851852, "best_return": 0.182132, "worst_return": -0.20705, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.029396, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.085437, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.259576, "worst_return": -0.304716, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.01727, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.139686, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.120613, "worst_return": -0.416151, "sufficient": true 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.098533, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03034, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.079456, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013249, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016919, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.320368, "energy": 19.830209, "activity_lines": [ 13.052, 12.66, 12.673595, 13.555774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.08, "volume": 12496028, "typical_volume": 12828768.9, "trend": 14.8365, "fair_value": 30.159135, "relative_strength": -48.367677, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.970088, "energy": 28.72042, "activity_lines": [ 12.428, 12.422, 12.476857, 13.295011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.22, "volume": 14751751, "typical_volume": 13135903.85, "trend": 14.511167, "fair_value": 29.980417, "relative_strength": -50.24212, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.259308, "energy": 49.849253, "activity_lines": [ 11.616667, 12.049091, 12.22669, 12.997172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.18, "volume": 12177301, "typical_volume": 13347840.75, "trend": 14.1985, "fair_value": 29.800096, "relative_strength": -49.4228, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.174333, "energy": 73.247125, "activity_lines": [ 10.952667, 11.693091, 12.00019, 12.717742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.1, "volume": 10296445, "typical_volume": 13221466.4, "trend": 13.855167, "fair_value": 29.634583, "relative_strength": -46.249305, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.372699, "energy": 70.248335, "activity_lines": [ 10.787333, 11.534909, 11.881476, 12.517839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }