{ "ticker": { "uuid": "137d7908-7be9-47cc-b74b-2f01fa872749", "symbol": "FDIG", "name": "Fidelity Crypto Industry and Digital Payments ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 10.445, "architecture_energy": 13.481, "architecture_maturity": 38.752, "architecture_confidence": 70.274, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.83, "rotation_up": 18.48, "upward_expansion": 44.68, "deceleration": 84.37, "rotation_down": 34.98, "downward_expansion": 27.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.948387, 41.662514, 42.223046, 41.062557 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 41.2402, "trend_reference": 39.97772, "distance_from_trend": 0.03158, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.051484, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.286686, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.839884, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.146376, "excess_performance": -0.041078, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.03158, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002429, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.286686, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.196186, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.138399, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077637, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.146376, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.358901, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 225065, "relative_activity": 1.061067, "balance": 1.358901, "dry_up": 0.724356, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100313, "annualized_volatility": 0.419951, "from_high_reference": -0.306011, "from_low_reference": 0.35041 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.97772, "fair_value_reference": 32.051484, "structural_low": 30.539023, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.028649, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.002365, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.31659, "worst_return": -0.197384, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.06495, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.098032, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.152995, "worst_return": -0.280157, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.196003, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.043525, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.22212, "worst_return": 0.139023, "sufficient": false }, { 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.199361, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.367826, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.278668, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.045196, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.19148, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.624166, "energy": 21.221198, "activity_lines": [ 43.063792, 43.617243, 42.156074, 40.881754 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 39.8381, "volume": 130700, "typical_volume": 211298.6, "trend": 39.970826, "fair_value": 31.672591, "relative_strength": -13.903526, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.04948, "energy": 17.279966, "activity_lines": [ 41.805053, 42.864606, 42.126508, 40.871417 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.7912, "volume": 133524, "typical_volume": 210059.95, "trend": 40.007585, "fair_value": 31.788116, "relative_strength": -10.178192, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.096064, "energy": 18.484973, "activity_lines": [ 41.144273, 42.371705, 42.167457, 40.924344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.9387, "volume": 125289, "typical_volume": 208516.45, "trend": 40.029014, "fair_value": 31.916995, "relative_strength": -10.263913, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.283669, "energy": 13.637548, "activity_lines": [ 40.898087, 41.954742, 42.193937, 40.984416 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.2402, "volume": 225065, "typical_volume": 212111.95, "trend": 39.97772, "fair_value": 32.051484, "relative_strength": -13.839884, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.445428, "energy": 13.481296, "activity_lines": [ 40.948387, 41.662514, 42.223046, 41.062557 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }