{ "ticker": { "uuid": "137ed404-ae9d-4bc6-b316-3b9bb378afa9", "symbol": "ALEO2", "name": "Eo2 Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 Anonyme", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 70.241, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -19.463, "architecture_energy": 13.599, "architecture_maturity": 15.568, "architecture_confidence": 80.784, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.67, "rotation_up": 28.29, "upward_expansion": 18.85, "deceleration": 68.81, "rotation_down": 36.68, "downward_expansion": 34.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.684, 2.682909, 2.76219, 2.774366 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.62, "trend_reference": 2.76, "distance_from_trend": -0.050725, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.896603, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.327619, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.018945, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.039683, "excess_performance": -0.013629, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.050725, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00385, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.327619, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024209, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.120189, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123057, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.039683, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.53443, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 323, "relative_activity": 0.075686, "balance": 0.53443, "dry_up": 0.133387, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081033, "annualized_volatility": 0.322074, "from_high_reference": -0.233918, "from_low_reference": 0.12931 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.76, "fair_value_reference": 3.896603, "structural_low": 2.32, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.017676, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.010948, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.194853, "worst_return": -0.130261, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.027778, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.032422, "regime_survival": 0.181818, "best_return": 0.182979, "worst_return": -0.255776, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.006944, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.021688, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.164835, "worst_return": -0.25523, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.080586, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.15321, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.044025, "worst_return": -0.350701, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.073059, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.065, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.126984, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.100304, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.173611, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007194, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.093525, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.112, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.050725, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-24", 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2.767333, "fair_value": 3.968013, "relative_strength": -7.884707, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.746062, "energy": 41.480674, "activity_lines": [ 2.626667, 2.704727, 2.794857, 2.784602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.74, "volume": 1151, "typical_volume": 5122.45, "trend": 2.766, "fair_value": 3.94391, "relative_strength": -4.589648, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.887423, "energy": 35.584299, "activity_lines": [ 2.657333, 2.697091, 2.786952, 2.782839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.78, "volume": 296, "typical_volume": 4541.0, "trend": 2.765333, "fair_value": 3.920577, "relative_strength": -4.734756, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.270121, "energy": 17.483926, "activity_lines": [ 2.696, 2.703273, 2.78219, 2.783742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.62, "volume": 323, "typical_volume": 4267.65, "trend": 2.76, "fair_value": 3.896603, "relative_strength": -12.018945, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.46295, "energy": 13.598724, "activity_lines": [ 2.684, 2.682909, 2.76219, 2.774366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }