{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1380f5cd-345b-463a-bdb9-faad9a29b04a", "symbol": "TCO", "name": "Transmetro Corporation Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 81.115, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.492, "architecture_energy": 67.928, "architecture_maturity": 14.599, "architecture_confidence": 80.997, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.47, "rotation_up": 27.94, "upward_expansion": 35.95, "deceleration": 23.57, "rotation_down": 36.81, "downward_expansion": 72.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.624, 2.613641, 2.713417, 2.784603 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.63, "trend_reference": 2.790418, "distance_from_trend": -0.057489, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.983677, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.32582, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.278593, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.035339, "excess_performance": -0.028366, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.057489, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054291, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.32582, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.348979, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.002786, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.371791, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.035339, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.372979, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.372979, "dry_up": 2.699033, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023805, "annualized_volatility": 0.369772, "from_high_reference": -0.262498, "from_low_reference": 0.345941 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.790418, "fair_value_reference": 1.983677, "structural_low": 2.54023, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.005, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.012945, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.27381, "worst_return": -0.033653, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.055162, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.035074, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.267857, "worst_return": 0.008572, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.069565, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.03323, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.238095, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.423189, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.410964, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.565452, "worst_return": 0.11, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022727, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.013587, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.068376, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.048387, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.3, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"2026-07-24", "close": 2.63, "volume": 11889, "typical_volume": 1387.2, "trend": 2.768149, "fair_value": 1.970308, "relative_strength": 6.834008, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.603694, "energy": 43.338069, "activity_lines": [ 2.610667, 2.601582, 2.763074, 2.803147 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.63, "volume": 4750, "typical_volume": 1624.7, "trend": 2.779284, "fair_value": 1.977008, "relative_strength": 3.920306, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.873098, "energy": 37.933023, "activity_lines": [ 2.618, 2.60674, 2.737761, 2.794234 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.63, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1541.2, "trend": 2.790418, "fair_value": 1.983677, "relative_strength": 0.278593, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.491656, "energy": 67.927652, "activity_lines": [ 2.624, 2.613641, 2.713417, 2.784603 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }