{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1383855c-b739-4c5f-ae6d-ac896d9aeb13", "symbol": "300200", "name": "Beijing Comens New Materials Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.335, "architecture_energy": 70.262, "architecture_maturity": 18.225, "architecture_confidence": 83.407, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.9, "rotation_up": 9.08, "upward_expansion": 15.43, "deceleration": 37.31, "rotation_down": 72.27, "downward_expansion": 88.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.426667, 9.031119, 9.428006, 9.799563 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.72, "trend_reference": 10.605886, "distance_from_trend": -0.177815, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.143809, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.046349, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.90334, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.277548, "excess_performance": -0.284947, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.177815, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068202, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.046349, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.160313, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.219033, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029971, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.277548, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.787239, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43539802, "relative_activity": 0.646117, "balance": 0.787239, "dry_up": 0.73252, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.140953, "annualized_volatility": 0.611174, "from_high_reference": -0.459057, "from_low_reference": 0.186395 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.605886, "fair_value_reference": 9.143809, "structural_low": 7.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.031447, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": 0.00945, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.381902, "worst_return": -0.346251, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.008937, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.07756, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.310105, "worst_return": -0.174004, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.222216, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.198469, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.240418, "worst_return": -0.115304, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 9.698667, 9.780027, 9.888719, 10.303176 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.76, "volume": 46974220, "typical_volume": 69848747.25, "trend": 10.853219, "fair_value": 9.142099, "relative_strength": -28.908746, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.158058, "energy": 64.563845, "activity_lines": [ 8.955333, 9.386355, 9.671164, 10.094968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.26, "volume": 43806480, "typical_volume": 69335469.25, "trend": 10.705552, "fair_value": 9.141195, "relative_strength": -22.664815, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.805012, "energy": 71.754186, "activity_lines": [ 8.494, 9.147782, 9.52018, 9.927664 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.72, "volume": 43539802, "typical_volume": 67386818.5, "trend": 10.605886, "fair_value": 9.143809, "relative_strength": -21.90334, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.334761, "energy": 70.261676, "activity_lines": [ 8.426667, 9.031119, 9.428006, 9.799563 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }