{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1385d35d-7d2d-4730-8af8-892e13316d69", "symbol": "MANGALAM", "name": "Mangalam Drugs & Organics Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.689, "architecture_energy": 47.091, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 90.228, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.86, "rotation_up": 17.08, "upward_expansion": 6.44, "deceleration": 47.1, "rotation_down": 65.2, "downward_expansion": 84.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.265334, 27.706182, 28.330143, 29.016968 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 27.190001, "trend_reference": 30.878, "distance_from_trend": -0.119438, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 82.199679, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.66922, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.44569, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.239228, "excess_performance": -0.195519, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.119438, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085936, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.66922, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010477, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.344457, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091205, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.239228, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.148431, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 105901, "relative_activity": 1.234104, "balance": 0.148431, "dry_up": 1.087545, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067446, "annualized_volatility": 0.332455, "from_high_reference": -0.687112, "from_low_reference": 0.192544 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.878, "fair_value_reference": 82.199679, "structural_low": 26.33, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.021334, "positive_rate": 0.378378, "directional_follow_through": 0.621622, "median_excess_return": -0.031765, "regime_survival": 0.891892, "best_return": 0.534921, "worst_return": -0.595506, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.05779, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.044505, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.307143, "worst_return": -0.684618, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.130045, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.179393, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.200798, "worst_return": -0.60331, "sufficient": true }, { 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"gate": "down", "direction": -63.547349, "energy": 38.53333, "activity_lines": [ 28.381334, 28.652909, 29.076286, 30.043183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.59, "volume": 103177, "typical_volume": 115357.55, "trend": 31.253333, "fair_value": 83.766218, "relative_strength": -37.809327, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.211816, "energy": 53.824268, "activity_lines": [ 28.055334, 28.400546, 28.896714, 29.814538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.219999, "volume": 80063, "typical_volume": 108252.95, "trend": 31.368, "fair_value": 83.231731, "relative_strength": -35.515547, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.690904, "energy": 60.984858, "activity_lines": [ 27.645333, 28.130545, 28.689, 29.554323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.110001, "volume": 84157, "typical_volume": 88379.55, "trend": 31.261, "fair_value": 82.704551, "relative_strength": -35.658585, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.477417, "energy": 59.532943, "activity_lines": [ 27.386, 27.890182, 28.49481, 29.279613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.190001, "volume": 105901, "typical_volume": 85812.05, "trend": 30.878, "fair_value": 82.199679, "relative_strength": -34.44569, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.688626, "energy": 47.090551, "activity_lines": [ 27.265334, 27.706182, 28.330143, 29.016968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }