{ "ticker": { "uuid": "138f4895-1bbe-4931-b6cf-29c8363ba93b", "symbol": "BMRA", "name": "Biomerica Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.513, "architecture_energy": 59.788, "architecture_maturity": 31.769, "architecture_confidence": 81.486, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.37, "rotation_up": 13.05, "upward_expansion": 9.91, "deceleration": 47.9, "rotation_down": 72.1, "downward_expansion": 85.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.578853, 1.653951, 1.863349, 1.948869 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.61, "trend_reference": 2.06972, "distance_from_trend": -0.222117, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.185485, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.615337, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.80537, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.284444, "excess_performance": -0.471898, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.222117, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104052, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.615337, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061609, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.408054, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084272, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.284444, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.375575, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27928, "relative_activity": 0.354758, "balance": 0.375575, "dry_up": 0.413724, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.136312, "annualized_volatility": 0.424708, "from_high_reference": -0.65, "from_low_reference": 0.110345 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.06972, "fair_value_reference": 4.185485, "structural_low": 1.45, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.036786, "positive_rate": 0.564103, "directional_follow_through": 0.435897, "median_excess_return": -0.004061, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.380682, "worst_return": -0.361838, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.118645, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.122873, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.789333, "worst_return": -0.508036, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.122276, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.296334, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.213038, "worst_return": -0.602694, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.303571, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.833286, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.031947, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.105358, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.131868, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2026-05-08", 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"relative_strength": -40.517463, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.195152, "energy": 83.275865, "activity_lines": [ 1.646707, 1.771282, 1.954079, 2.022984 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.49, "volume": 40148, "typical_volume": 87877.7, "trend": 2.107053, "fair_value": 4.23978, "relative_strength": -43.355689, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.318186, "energy": 79.805849, "activity_lines": [ 1.584113, 1.692616, 1.901857, 1.980937 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.61, "volume": 27928, "typical_volume": 78724.05, "trend": 2.06972, "fair_value": 4.185485, "relative_strength": -40.80537, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.513055, "energy": 59.787799, "activity_lines": [ 1.578853, 1.653951, 1.863349, 1.948869 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }