{ "ticker": { "uuid": "139b6e1b-7370-4ac0-b057-b6c3faf78d7b", "symbol": "OXSQ", "name": "Oxford Square Capital Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -22.627, "architecture_energy": 19.962, "architecture_maturity": 28.451, "architecture_confidence": 68.781, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.88, "rotation_up": 36.9, "upward_expansion": 19.38, "deceleration": 43.61, "rotation_down": 18.1, "downward_expansion": 51.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.489674, 1.430626, 1.445237, 1.495707 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.49, "trend_reference": 1.55798, "distance_from_trend": -0.043634, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.832347, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.186835, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.161392, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.129138, "excess_performance": -0.316591, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.043634, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041942, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.186835, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122555, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.181614, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029066, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.129138, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.66136, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8487689, "relative_activity": 0.937342, "balance": 0.66136, "dry_up": 0.840678, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116604, "annualized_volatility": 0.48982, "from_high_reference": -0.23854, "from_low_reference": 0.456391 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.55798, "fair_value_reference": 1.832347, "structural_low": 1.023077, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.00522, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.019188, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.102378, "worst_return": -0.180503, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.045741, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.065102, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.092212, "worst_return": -0.191973, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.075949, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.073146, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.133094, "worst_return": -0.170274, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.044516, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.360353, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.008032, "worst_return": -0.060019, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049875, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.109556, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026186, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.050113, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044083, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.06398, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005291, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022099, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", 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"close": 1.44, "volume": 4782207, "typical_volume": 9065863.2, "trend": 1.560649, "fair_value": 1.836077, "relative_strength": -17.920701, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.289725, "energy": 20.704039, "activity_lines": [ 1.419478, 1.367652, 1.444236, 1.500959 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.55, "volume": 7208877, "typical_volume": 9031472.75, "trend": 1.560757, "fair_value": 1.834611, "relative_strength": -11.391206, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.970281, "energy": 19.983898, "activity_lines": [ 1.473273, 1.407346, 1.447482, 1.500272 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.49, "volume": 8487689, "typical_volume": 9055063.2, "trend": 1.55798, "fair_value": 1.832347, "relative_strength": -18.161392, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.62743, "energy": 19.962201, "activity_lines": [ 1.489674, 1.430626, 1.445237, 1.495707 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }