{ "ticker": { "uuid": "139dd156-5c6f-43d0-8675-c740c2b0e625", "symbol": "PECN", "name": "PetroChina Company Limited", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 81.933, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 31.072, "architecture_energy": 70.674, "architecture_maturity": 10.799, "architecture_confidence": 65.778, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.69, "rotation_up": 75.23, "upward_expansion": 61.69, "deceleration": 14.85, "rotation_down": 14.05, "downward_expansion": 32.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.081867, 1.044411, 0.987639, 0.997972 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.0625, "trend_reference": 1.002366, "distance_from_trend": 0.059993, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.488276, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.176022, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.281593, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.064629, "excess_performance": -0.109617, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.059993, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025226, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.176022, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.154536, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.062816, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041644, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.064629, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.902941, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.902941, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047979, "annualized_volatility": 0.713849, "from_high_reference": -0.141414, "from_low_reference": 0.829884 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.002366, "fair_value_reference": 0.488276, "structural_low": 0.802614, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.462233, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.476763, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.462233, "worst_return": 0.462233, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.655087, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.62168, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.655087, "worst_return": 0.655087, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 1.694263, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 1.552019, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.694263, "worst_return": 1.694263, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 1.345993, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.97845, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.345993, "worst_return": 1.345993, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0558, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083859, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013594, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024372, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.248055, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.466185, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.660156, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.068256, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.174349, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.118236, 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"2026-07-10", "close": 1.0105, "volume": 2007, "typical_volume": 134.35, "trend": 0.976639, "fair_value": 0.462899, "relative_strength": -6.818303, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.444625, "energy": 25.137446, "activity_lines": [ 0.985055, 0.93984, 0.951362, 0.971467 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.0685, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 134.35, "trend": 0.982535, "fair_value": 0.469104, "relative_strength": -0.108948, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.905154, "energy": 49.945204, "activity_lines": [ 1.020533, 0.968796, 0.958465, 0.977393 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.14, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 132.35, "trend": 0.991269, "fair_value": 0.475776, "relative_strength": 4.470376, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 54.607221, "energy": 74.917657, "activity_lines": [ 1.063433, 1.006555, 0.97219, 0.987552 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.087, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 122.35, "trend": 0.996735, "fair_value": 0.482124, "relative_strength": -0.835369, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.815906, "energy": 70.62577, "activity_lines": [ 1.080167, 1.029752, 0.980831, 0.993729 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.0625, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 122.35, "trend": 1.002366, "fair_value": 0.488276, "relative_strength": -6.281593, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.071654, "energy": 70.674092, "activity_lines": [ 1.081867, 1.044411, 0.987639, 0.997972 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }