{ "ticker": { "uuid": "13ac8bc2-8b3b-445c-a4e1-4ae8bae8febf", "symbol": "ALRPD", "name": "Rapid Nutrition PLC", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 84.807, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.431, "architecture_energy": 82.394, "architecture_maturity": 28.182, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.48, "rotation_up": 20.76, "upward_expansion": 20.29, "deceleration": 38.09, "rotation_down": 66.33, "downward_expansion": 95.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.331333, 4.967273, 6.532429, 8.035247 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3.9, "trend_reference": 9.191667, "distance_from_trend": -0.575703, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 50.227244, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.922353, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -48.013578, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.668367, "excess_performance": -0.721679, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.575703, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.109435, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.922353, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016433, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.480136, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.71289, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.668367, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.215986, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 97123, "relative_activity": 1.557963, "balance": 0.215986, "dry_up": 1.449986, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.4286, "annualized_volatility": 1.460687, "from_high_reference": -0.74, "from_low_reference": 0.625 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.191667, "fair_value_reference": 50.227244, "structural_low": 3.26, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.166667, "positive_rate": 0.242424, "directional_follow_through": 0.69697, "median_excess_return": -0.173928, "regime_survival": 0.878788, "best_return": 1.36, "worst_return": -0.75, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.32449, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.322946, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 4.37037, "worst_return": -0.833333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.614862, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.661272, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.959184, "worst_return": -0.833333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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8.895505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.79, "volume": 74783, "typical_volume": 51439.9, "trend": 9.194333, "fair_value": 60.42968, "relative_strength": -20.663138, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.664969, "energy": 83.348571, "activity_lines": [ 4.757333, 5.746545, 7.45481, 8.682516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.52, "volume": 120874, "typical_volume": 57483.6, "trend": 9.258333, "fair_value": 55.330449, "relative_strength": -38.726021, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.259184, "energy": 81.018843, "activity_lines": [ 4.583333, 5.383636, 6.999381, 8.380946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.9, "volume": 97123, "typical_volume": 62339.75, "trend": 9.191667, "fair_value": 50.227244, "relative_strength": -48.013578, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.430908, "energy": 82.393924, "activity_lines": [ 4.331333, 4.967273, 6.532429, 8.035247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }