{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "13ad9587-c5c2-45d1-b641-d3aa14eccaee",
    "symbol": "PST",
    "name": "Poste Italiane S.p.A.",
    "exchange": "VIE",
    "country": "AT",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^ATX",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 43.594,
    "architecture_energy": 35.272,
    "architecture_maturity": 68.359,
    "architecture_confidence": 80.606,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 31.76,
        "rotation_up": 29.13,
        "upward_expansion": 69.19,
        "deceleration": 88.33,
        "rotation_down": 27.98,
        "downward_expansion": 21.53
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        26.936667,
        27.437828,
        26.307948,
        25.203184
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 27.41,
    "trend_reference": 24.002038,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.141986,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 15.52918,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.765064,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 0.296517,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.188638,
    "excess_performance": 0.014392,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.141986,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.098606,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.765064,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.109179,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.002965,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.032114,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.188638,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 5.096591,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 0,
      "relative_activity": 0.0,
      "balance": 5.096591,
      "dry_up": 0.44299,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.040331,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.283551,
      "from_high_reference": -0.063866,
      "from_low_reference": 0.449878
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 24.002038,
      "fair_value_reference": 15.52918,
      "structural_low": 19.344999,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 14,
        "median_return": 0.034851,
        "positive_rate": 0.785714,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.785714,
        "median_excess_return": 0.01382,
        "regime_survival": 0.285714,
        "best_return": 0.165674,
        "worst_return": -0.024316,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": 0.088902,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.03372,
        "regime_survival": 0.111111,
        "best_return": 0.33615,
        "worst_return": -0.179713,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.063079,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": 0.070563,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.245213,
        "worst_return": -0.210012,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.125716,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.077544,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.563376,
        "worst_return": -0.16018,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2023-03-24",
        "end": "2023-05-05",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.009774,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2023-05-12",
        "end": "2023-06-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.03642,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-06-16",
        "end": "2023-10-20",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.005288,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2023-10-27",
        "end": "2023-11-03",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.021246,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2023-11-10",
        "end": "2023-11-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.010212,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2023-11-24",
        "end": "2023-12-15",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.046607,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-12-22",
        "end": "2024-02-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.038439,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-02-16",
        "end": "2024-03-01",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.083829,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-03-08",
        "end": "2024-08-09",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.07372,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-16",
        "end": "2024-08-23",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.015435,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-08-30",
        "end": "2026-03-13",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.85139,
        "active": false
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      {
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        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-03-20",
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        "return": 0.108216,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2026-07-31",
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        "return": 0.071111,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-08-07",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 21.866913,
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        "typical_volume": 91.35,
        "trend": 21.326781,
        "fair_value": 13.904922,
        "relative_strength": -7.072921,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 34.839129,
        "energy": 25.373015,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "trend": 21.427191,
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        "relative_strength": -2.914878,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch",
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        "energy": 40.998108,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 23.605001,
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        "typical_volume": 91.35,
        "trend": 21.562115,
        "fair_value": 14.103294,
        "relative_strength": -0.821349,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch",
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        "energy": 68.294216,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 91.35,
        "trend": 21.706304,
        "fair_value": 14.207407,
        "relative_strength": -0.246026,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 82.428981,
        "energy": 80.959647,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 146.05,
        "trend": 21.847725,
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        "relative_strength": -1.086034,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "energy": 86.363744,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 146.05,
        "trend": 22.006032,
        "fair_value": 14.422137,
        "relative_strength": 1.30069,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 82.551483,
        "energy": 91.775972,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 27.31422,
        "volume": 700,
        "typical_volume": 181.05,
        "trend": 22.225037,
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        "relative_strength": 7.23874,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "relative_strength": 7.001458,
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        "energy": 98.133031,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 181.05,
        "trend": 22.749704,
        "fair_value": 14.80206,
        "relative_strength": 8.466903,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 88.75893,
        "energy": 95.946995,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.494604,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 29.18,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 181.05,
        "trend": 23.042704,
        "fair_value": 14.935911,
        "relative_strength": 8.642087,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 89.21407,
        "energy": 96.1728,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 28.620001,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 181.05,
        "trend": 23.306038,
        "fair_value": 15.064492,
        "relative_strength": 7.639698,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 70.196971,
        "energy": 89.482666,
        "activity_lines": [
          28.610948,
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          25.306256,
          24.353882
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 27.860001,
        "volume": 352,
        "typical_volume": 198.65,
        "trend": 23.521371,
        "fair_value": 15.187266,
        "relative_strength": 6.530038,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.437189,
        "energy": 86.475313,
        "activity_lines": [
          28.434667,
          27.671143,
          25.684869,
          24.647686
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 26.26,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 198.65,
        "trend": 23.682371,
        "fair_value": 15.298356,
        "relative_strength": -1.034707,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.665236,
        "energy": 64.717228,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.688667,
          27.583881,
          25.887959,
          24.824372
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 25.969999,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 198.65,
        "trend": 23.826038,
        "fair_value": 15.409428,
        "relative_strength": -2.103068,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 49.205843,
        "energy": 46.936291,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.992667,
          27.395619,
          26.04024,
          24.97196
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 27.41,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 198.65,
        "trend": 24.002038,
        "fair_value": 15.52918,
        "relative_strength": 0.296517,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 43.593998,
        "energy": 35.271955,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.936667,
          27.437828,
          26.307948,
          25.203184
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}