{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "13b2f22c-b4b8-49e5-8a3d-8979060f3482",
    "symbol": "SPXH",
    "name": "Amundi Core S&P 500 Swap UCITS ETF EUR Hedged Dist",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 72.749,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 83.195,
    "architecture_energy": 58.063,
    "architecture_maturity": 62.577,
    "architecture_confidence": 61.718,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 32.56,
        "rotation_up": 52.08,
        "upward_expansion": 79.63,
        "deceleration": 69.31,
        "rotation_down": 27.54,
        "downward_expansion": 8.63
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        359.322432,
        352.701852
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      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 373.450012,
    "trend_reference": 345.358669,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.08134,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 289.002247,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.292205,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -4.94353,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.117044,
    "excess_performance": -0.053848,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.08134,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.030633,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.292205,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.004925,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.049435,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.024205,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.117044,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.599806,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1714,
      "relative_activity": 0.374428,
      "balance": 2.599806,
      "dry_up": 0.578463,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.019146,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.132507,
      "from_high_reference": -0.004399,
      "from_low_reference": 0.211359
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 345.358669,
      "fair_value_reference": 289.002247,
      "structural_low": 308.290009,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 39,
        "median_return": 0.012533,
        "positive_rate": 0.717949,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.717949,
        "median_excess_return": 0.001307,
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        "worst_return": -0.091554,
        "sufficient": true
      },
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        "horizon": "Intermediate",
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        "sufficient": true
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      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "relative_strength": -2.523013,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "relative_strength": -6.25046,
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        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 7011.45,
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        "fair_value": 285.455167,
        "relative_strength": -5.997556,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 4427,
        "typical_volume": 6879.25,
        "trend": 342.528003,
        "fair_value": 286.320759,
        "relative_strength": -5.496272,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 359.0,
        "volume": 3026,
        "typical_volume": 6386.7,
        "trend": 343.331669,
        "fair_value": 287.165818,
        "relative_strength": -5.565364,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 357.649994,
        "volume": 1425,
        "typical_volume": 5032.45,
        "trend": 344.165669,
        "fair_value": 288.022134,
        "relative_strength": -6.400841,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 46.835934,
        "energy": 40.51541,
        "activity_lines": [
          359.729997,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 373.450012,
        "volume": 1714,
        "typical_volume": 4577.65,
        "trend": 345.358669,
        "fair_value": 289.002247,
        "relative_strength": -4.94353,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 83.195089,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}