{ "ticker": { "uuid": "13babf2a-f836-4e30-8b04-a995ed71c3d1", "symbol": "NDL", "name": "Nandan Denim Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.086, "architecture_energy": 67.428, "architecture_maturity": 18.367, "architecture_confidence": 90.116, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.56, "rotation_up": 12.34, "upward_expansion": 14.49, "deceleration": 38.46, "rotation_down": 70.83, "downward_expansion": 90.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.344667, 2.391091, 2.492429, 2.520946 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.32, "trend_reference": 2.591, "distance_from_trend": -0.104593, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.589564, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.353682, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.132015, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.2443, "excess_performance": -0.200591, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.104593, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073429, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.353682, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.171097, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.18132, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122006, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.2443, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.182732, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3464061, "relative_activity": 0.666351, "balance": 0.182732, "dry_up": 0.648528, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062666, "annualized_volatility": 0.462949, "from_high_reference": -0.381333, "from_low_reference": 0.288889 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.591, "fair_value_reference": 3.589564, "structural_low": 1.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.033333, "positive_rate": 0.407407, "directional_follow_through": 0.592593, "median_excess_return": -0.040821, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.441624, "worst_return": -0.262172, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.077157, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.090517, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.211082, "worst_return": -0.161922, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.131965, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.203353, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.712401, "worst_return": -0.228682, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117783, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.08948, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.091405, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.254125, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053305, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 2.36, "volume": 3093015, "typical_volume": 6096866.75, "trend": 2.653, "fair_value": 3.581103, "relative_strength": -17.913847, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.936744, "energy": 67.050455, "activity_lines": [ 2.414667, 2.479273, 2.547, 2.578043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.31, "volume": 3226745, "typical_volume": 5815294.55, "trend": 2.630667, "fair_value": 3.583763, "relative_strength": -17.042954, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.73353, "energy": 73.426018, "activity_lines": [ 2.367333, 2.439091, 2.525762, 2.555914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.38, "volume": 3701800, "typical_volume": 5656782.95, "trend": 2.611333, "fair_value": 3.586872, "relative_strength": -16.036809, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.369957, "energy": 66.004077, "activity_lines": [ 2.363333, 2.418364, 2.511857, 2.539742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.32, "volume": 3464061, "typical_volume": 5198553.15, "trend": 2.591, "fair_value": 3.589564, "relative_strength": -18.132015, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.085773, "energy": 67.428399, "activity_lines": [ 2.344667, 2.391091, 2.492429, 2.520946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }