{ "ticker": { "uuid": "13bf95f1-f451-4b33-8898-d1c05f03fedd", "symbol": "PRAJ", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi Prime Japan UCITS ETF DR (C)", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.386, "architecture_energy": 44.79, "architecture_maturity": 82.514, "architecture_confidence": 61.084, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.15, "rotation_up": 44.31, "upward_expansion": 72.87, "deceleration": 71.31, "rotation_down": 28.1, "downward_expansion": 10.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.555999, 36.49709, 35.894738, 35.257752 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 37.474998, "trend_reference": 34.507333, "distance_from_trend": 0.086001, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.308429, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.323811, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.967052, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.11699, "excess_performance": 0.05235, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086001, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055577, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.323811, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04819, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.059671, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063037, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.11699, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.500141, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 84712, "relative_activity": 0.873971, "balance": 4.500141, "dry_up": 0.737852, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029681, "annualized_volatility": 0.184181, "from_high_reference": -0.001066, "from_low_reference": 0.302346 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.507333, "fair_value_reference": 28.308429, "structural_low": 31.17, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.00624, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": 0.003101, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.060582, "worst_return": -0.106554, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.006642, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.019781, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.152074, "worst_return": -0.092334, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.031752, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002818, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.168106, "worst_return": -0.115377, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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73.048291, "energy": 83.606993, "activity_lines": [ 36.749001, 36.265091, 35.252214, 34.679753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.474998, "volume": 90490, "typical_volume": 113398.3, "trend": 33.983, "fair_value": 28.050769, "relative_strength": 7.486854, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.286537, "energy": 52.116426, "activity_lines": [ 36.384, 36.196273, 35.346095, 34.786118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.220001, "volume": 55771, "typical_volume": 104075.85, "trend": 34.163333, "fair_value": 28.131026, "relative_strength": 8.108007, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.984444, "energy": 46.146669, "activity_lines": [ 36.274, 36.249364, 35.508667, 34.930441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.099998, "volume": 55100, "typical_volume": 98813.05, "trend": 34.338333, "fair_value": 28.215064, "relative_strength": 5.171558, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.444786, "energy": 33.167922, "activity_lines": [ 36.178, 36.257091, 35.644452, 35.055387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.474998, "volume": 84712, "typical_volume": 96927.7, "trend": 34.507333, "fair_value": 28.308429, "relative_strength": 5.967052, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.38591, "energy": 44.790498, "activity_lines": [ 36.555999, 36.49709, 35.894738, 35.257752 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }