{ "ticker": { "uuid": "13c46940-c940-446b-9c29-51595b7281da", "symbol": "ROES", "name": "Goshawk Global Balanced UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 62.557, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.283, "architecture_energy": 32.718, "architecture_maturity": 40.405, "architecture_confidence": 72.559, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.18, "rotation_up": 40.3, "upward_expansion": 70.13, "deceleration": 89.51, "rotation_down": 29.18, "downward_expansion": 10.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 876.363333, 875.506364, 873.338098, 866.964196 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 886.05, "trend_reference": 859.943337, "distance_from_trend": 0.030359, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 774.664102, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.143786, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.981533, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.046536, "excess_performance": -0.004699, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.030359, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017763, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.143786, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00901, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.029815, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034819, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.046536, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.932688, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2567, "relative_activity": 0.712759, "balance": 0.932688, "dry_up": 1.21734, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015954, "annualized_volatility": 0.083918, "from_high_reference": -0.004438, "from_low_reference": 0.145656 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 859.943337, "fair_value_reference": 774.664102, "structural_low": 811.400024, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.017666, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.013001, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.064075, "worst_return": -0.072236, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.002676, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.015908, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.057795, "worst_return": -0.079739, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.021028, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.030231, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.042835, "worst_return": -0.013545, "sufficient": false }, 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"typical_volume": 3494.6, "trend": 858.783337, "fair_value": 772.984295, "relative_strength": -4.260696, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.054417, "energy": 17.496082, "activity_lines": [ 872.16, 873.471818, 871.149288, 865.205057 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 886.05, "volume": 2567, "typical_volume": 3601.5, "trend": 859.943337, "fair_value": 774.664102, "relative_strength": -2.981533, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.282552, "energy": 32.717858, "activity_lines": [ 876.363333, 875.506364, 873.338098, 866.964196 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }